Rancak Media, JAKARTA — The Indonesian stock market witnessed a significant foreign outflow throughout 2025, with a number of prominent shares, from PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA) to PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk. (EMTK), becoming primary targets for foreign selling.
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI), the Indonesian stock market recorded a foreign net sell of Rp938.13 billion on the final trading day of the year, Tuesday, December 30, 2025. This brought the total foreign net sell in the Indonesian stock market to a substantial Rp17.34 trillion for the entirety of 2025.
Several stocks bore the brunt of this foreign selling pressure in 2025. Shares of BBCA, for instance, experienced the highest foreign net sell, reaching an astonishing Rp28.2 trillion throughout the year. This trend extended to other banking giants, with PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. (BMRI) recording a foreign net sell of Rp13.34 trillion, PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk. (BBRI) seeing Rp9.33 trillion in outflows, and PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk. (BBNI) registering Rp4.29 trillion in foreign net sell during 2025.
Beyond the banking sector, other notable companies also faced significant foreign selling. PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk. (ADRO) saw a foreign net sell of Rp4.92 trillion, followed by PT Bumi Resources Tbk. (BUMI) with Rp4.25 trillion, PT Kalbe Farma Tbk. (KLBF) at Rp2.63 trillion, and EMTK with Rp2.21 trillion in foreign net sell over the course of 2025.
Ironically, despite this substantial foreign outflow, the Indonesian stock market delivered an impressive performance in 2025. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) closed the year with a robust 22.13% gain year-to-date (YTD), reaching 8,646.94 on its final trading day, Tuesday, December 30, 2025. This stellar performance included setting multiple new records.
Iman Rachman, President Director of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, highlighted that the BEI achieved an all-time high (ATH) of 8,711 on December 8, 2025. He also noted that the BEI’s market capitalization had surpassed Rp16,000 trillion. “This year, we recorded 24 all-time highs. This achievement is not solely the work of OJK, SRO, and the Exchange, but the contribution of all of us, including capital market stakeholders,” Iman stated during the year-end capital market press conference in Jakarta on Tuesday, December 30, 2025.
Throughout 2025, trading data showed an increase compared to the end of 2024, with the average daily transaction value (RNTH) standing at Rp18.06 trillion. This was accompanied by a daily transaction volume of 30.27 billion shares and a daily transaction frequency reaching 1.78 million times.
Ekky Topan, an Investment Analyst at Infovesta Kapital Advisori, attributed the significant foreign fund outflow in 2025, particularly from large-cap bank stocks, to the prevailing high benchmark interest rates. However, he projects a notable shift in foreign fund movement for 2026. “The direction of foreign fund flows in 2026 has the potential to shift back to large-capitalization stocks, especially within the jumbo banking sector,” Ekky told Bisnis recently.
This rebalancing pattern has already begun to emerge since late 2025, with BBCA and BMRI starting to attract substantial foreign net buys. This signals the initial phase of a rebalancing after nearly a year of minimal foreign activity and a rotation towards non-bank sectors. In 2026, the potential for continued foreign inflow into jumbo bank stocks is expected to strengthen, driven by three primary factors.
Firstly, a lower global interest rate environment will serve as a crucial catalyst. The banking sector is highly sensitive to a reduction in funding costs, impacting both net interest margins (NIM) directly and investor sentiment through capital inflows. “If the Federal Reserve enters a more consistent easing phase, global investors tend to increase their exposure to defensive and liquid stocks such as BBCA, BMRI, and BBRI,” Ekky explained.
Secondly, from a domestic macroeconomic perspective, the outlook for credit growth, rupiah stability, and expectations of a BI Rate reduction create a conducive environment for the banking sector. Jumbo banks possess greater leverage to capitalize on NIM recovery and asset quality improvements compared to tier-two banks, making them prime candidates for foreign capital inflow on a risk-adjusted return basis.
Thirdly, current valuations remain appealing. Both BBCA and BMRI are trading below their historical average valuations, indicating a significant window for re-rating when earnings resume positive growth in 2026. “This makes foreign inflow more likely to be stable and directed towards jumbo banks compared to the previous year,” Ekky affirmed.
Miftahul Khaer, an Analyst at Kiwoom Sekuritas, believes that foreign fund movement in 2026 will be more selective and fundamentally driven. This outlook aligns with the easing global interest rate uncertainty and expectations of further monetary easing from both the Federal Reserve and Bank Indonesia. He projects that jumbo bank stocks like BBCA and BMRI will once again attract foreign funds in 2026, a sentiment already indicated by the gradual return of foreign funds to major banking stocks towards the end of 2025.
“The return of foreign funds to jumbo banks like BBCA and BMRI at the end of 2025, we believe, is an early signal of rebalancing and has the potential to continue into 2026, especially if growth catalysts such as improving credit, asset quality, and rebounding profit margins materialize,” Miftahul commented. The sentiments expected to influence foreign fund movement in 2026 include rupiah exchange rate stability, the direction of global interest rate policies, Indonesia’s economic growth prospects, and the dynamics of global trade wars.
Summary
The Indonesian stock market experienced a significant foreign net sell of Rp17.34 trillion throughout 2025, with major shares like PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk. (BMRI), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk. (BBRI), and PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk. (EMTK) being primary targets. Despite this substantial outflow, the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) closed the year impressively with a 22.13% year-to-date gain, reaching 8,646.94 and setting multiple new records. The Indonesia Stock Exchange’s market capitalization also surpassed Rp16,000 trillion, reflecting a robust overall market performance.
Investment analysts attributed the 2025 foreign outflow, particularly from large-cap bank stocks, to prevailing high benchmark interest rates. However, a significant shift is projected for 2026, with foreign funds expected to return to large-capitalization and jumbo banking stocks, a trend already visible late in 2025. This anticipated inflow is driven by factors such as a lower global interest rate environment, a conducive domestic macroeconomic outlook, and appealing current valuations of these major bank stocks.
