Rancak Media – , JAKARTA – Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) soared to a new all-time high (ATH) of 8,394 during Friday’s trading session on November 7, 2025, propelled by a series of encouraging macroeconomic data. This significant achievement underscores the robust health of the national economy.
Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Equity Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia, emphasized that the current bullish momentum of the IHSG is firmly underpinned by solid macroeconomic fundamentals. These include well-controlled inflation, an expansive trend in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a third-quarter 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeding expectations, a remarkable 50 consecutive months of trade surplus, and sustained growth in both export and import figures.
Further bolstering this positive outlook are several catalysts, as highlighted by Liza in an interview with Bisnis on Sunday, November 9, 2025. These include a prevailing trend of declining interest rates, the implementation of a fiscal stimulus package in the fourth quarter of 2025, the extension of the VAT DTP policy until 2027, and the potential for significant capital inflows stemming from Indonesia’s inclusion in the MSCI index.
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Beyond these factors, Liza anticipates that the IHSG’s upward trajectory through the remainder of 2025 will also be supported by government and Danantara liquidity. This substantial liquidity provision strengthens the argument that the stock market rally possesses sufficient and reasonable fuel to persist.
It’s worth noting that the banking liquidity support policy initiated by Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is now actively being realized. The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) reports that Himbara banks had channeled liquidity injection funds from the government totaling Rp167.6 trillion by October 22, 2025. This amount represents 84% of the total government funds earmarked for placement.
This disbursement marks a substantial increase of approximately 48% compared to the Rp113 trillion (56% of total government placement funds) distributed as of October 9, 2025, indicating an accelerated rollout of the liquidity program.
Given these favorable conditions, Liza is optimistic that the IHSG has a strong potential to continue its strengthening trend until the end of the year, aligning with the government’s positive economic outlook. “The bullish pattern target of 8,600 could well be achieved before year-end,” she projected.
From a technical standpoint, Liza explained that in a robust bullish phase like the current one, price movement acts as the primary indicator. Other technical tools such as MACD or RSI, she noted, serve mainly as confirmation rather than dictating the market’s ultimate direction.
Meanwhile, M. Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, offered a technical perspective indicating that the current IHSG level has already surpassed Mirae Asset’s projected Wave V target of 8,390.
Nafan elaborated that if one employs technical approaches like the MACD, which has formed a “golden cross,” or the stochastic RSI, which is trending upwards and nearing the overbought territory, it indeed suggests a growing potential for future profit-taking actions in the stock market. Such actions could potentially temper the IHSG’s momentum.
“However, this largely depends on the performance of the stochastic RSI index itself,” Nafan clarified. “If there’s still a rally at the 70 level, and it climbs further to 80 or 90, then prices remain bullish.”
Mirae Asset’s historical analysis for the past 25 years reveals a consistent tendency for the IHSG to move positively during the months of November and December. This historical trend is further amplified this time by positive sentiment stemming from robust national economic fundamentals.
“This should be reflected in Indonesia’s GDP performance, which remains above consensus expectations at 5.04%. This figure is also higher than the full-year 2024 performance,” he concluded, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for the market.
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Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) soared to a new all-time high of 8,394 on November 7, 2025, driven by encouraging macroeconomic data. Liza Camelia Suryanata from Kiwoom Sekuritas highlighted robust fundamentals such as controlled inflation, an expansive manufacturing PMI, better-than-expected Q3 2025 GDP, and a prolonged trade surplus as key underpinnings. Additional catalysts include declining interest rates, fiscal stimulus, an extended VAT DTP policy, and potential capital inflows from Indonesia’s MSCI index inclusion, all supported by substantial government and Danantara liquidity totaling Rp167.6 trillion by October 22, 2025.
Given these favorable conditions, Liza is optimistic that the IHSG has strong potential to reach a bullish target of 8,600 before year-end, with price movement serving as the primary indicator. M. Nafan Aji Gusta of Mirae Asset Sekuritas noted that while technical indicators like MACD and stochastic RSI suggest a potential for profit-taking, the bullish trend can persist if the stochastic RSI remains strong. This outlook is further reinforced by historical positive IHSG performance in November and December, combined with solid national economic fundamentals and a GDP growth of 5.04%.
