JAKARTA – Indonesian conglomerate stocks are poised to face consecutive Auto Rejection Bottom (ARB) events following the effective date of the MSCI rebalancing on May 29, 2026. Fath Aliansyah, Head of Investment Specialist at Maybank Sekuritas, emphasized that May 29, 2026, will likely see a substantial volume of sell transactions for stocks removed from the MSCI index.
The fate of these equities, according to Aliansyah, will hinge significantly on the market’s capacity to absorb this influx of conglomerate shares post-rebalancing. “If the market cannot absorb them, these stocks will hit ARB and become locked. This typically continues for several days after the rebalancing becomes effective. So, it’s likely to persist into Tuesday,” he explained during a Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia YouTube broadcast on Tuesday (May 26, 2026). 
Conversely, should the market successfully absorb the large volume of shares released after the MSCI rebalancing, the selling pressure on these stocks is expected to conclude, potentially ushering in a robust rebound phase. This underscores that the overall impact of the MSCI rebalancing will critically depend on the domestic market’s ability to digest the significant supply of conglomerate shares. Aliansyah added, “If transactions on May 29 can indeed be absorbed in substantial value, we can confidently say that the selling pressure for conglomerate stocks will have ended, typically followed by a very strong rebound.”
This critical market event follows MSCI Inc.’s official announcement of its May 2026 index review results. In its latest update, five specific Indonesian issuer stocks were removed from the MSCI Global Standard Index. The changes are set to become effective at the close of trading on May 29, 2026, and will be implemented starting June 1, 2026. Notably, during this particular MSCI Global Standard Indexes Review, no new Indonesian stocks were added as constituents. The stocks removed from the index are AMMN, BREN, TPIA, DSSA, and CUAN.
Beyond the immediate impact of the MSCI rebalancing, the market is also closely monitoring the status of Indonesia’s capital market in June. Aliansyah outlined two primary scenarios, excluding the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a Frontier Market: either the interim freeze on Indonesian stocks is lifted, or the current conditions persist.
Should the first scenario materialize – the lifting of the interim freeze – there is a significant probability of an increased weighting for Indonesian stocks within the MSCI index. Big-cap banking stocks, in particular, are predicted to experience a robust rally under these conditions, given their substantial weighting in the MSCI Indonesia Index. “As long as the frontier scenario is off the table, with only these two outcomes likely, this should serve as a strong catalyst for big-cap stocks, especially blue-chip banking equities,” Aliansyah affirmed.
Non-bank stocks listed in the MSCI Small Cap Index are also expected to benefit from the lifting of the interim freeze, signifying a positive overall impact on Indonesia’s capital market. Conversely, if the interim freeze on Indonesian stocks extends into June, the second scenario, its influence on banking stocks is anticipated to be less significant. This is primarily because there would be no changes to the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) or free float.
“If the interim freeze is extended, we should still see big-cap stocks like banks benefiting, as there would be no changes concerning the FIF, free float, or other related factors. However, if the interim freeze for Indonesia is removed, it would be highly positive for the entire market,” he concluded.
This market dynamic also follows previous concerns, such as the potential freeze of GOTO stock by MSCI after it stalled at the Rp50 level.
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Summary
Indonesian conglomerate stocks are anticipated to face significant selling pressure and potential Auto Rejection Bottom (ARB) events following the MSCI rebalancing effective May 29, 2026. This follows the removal of five specific Indonesian issuers—AMMN, BREN, TPIA, DSSA, and CUAN—from the MSCI Global Standard Index, with no new additions. The extent of this impact, whether leading to sustained ARB or a swift rebound, hinges critically on the domestic market’s capacity to absorb the substantial volume of shares being sold.
Beyond the rebalancing, the market is also closely observing the status of an interim freeze on Indonesian stocks for June. Lifting this freeze would act as a strong catalyst, potentially increasing Indonesian stocks’ weighting within the MSCI index and driving a robust rally for big-cap banking stocks. Conversely, an extension of the interim freeze would have a less significant effect, particularly on banking stocks, as no changes to Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) or free float would occur.
