Rancak Media – JAKARTA – A powerful confluence of global monetary easing signals from the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and positive domestic developments is underpinning the Jakarta Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG), sustaining its bullish momentum.
Despite the IHSG closing with a slight correction today, Thursday (November 13, 2025), the composite index retains its strong potential for further gains, fueled by the anticipated surge of foreign capital into the domestic market.
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the IHSG concluded the day at 8,371, registering a modest decline of 0.20% or 16.56 points. Throughout today’s trading session, the composite index momentarily touched an intraday high of 8,418.
This current IHSG level underscores robust performance, reflecting a 3.04% growth over the past month and an impressive surge of 22.83% in the last six months.
Today’s modest decline saw the IHSG settle at 8,371, primarily weighed down by underperforming heavyweights such as UNVR, TLKM, and BBCA.
Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Equity Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas, highlighted that the Federal Reserve’s signal to conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) program, expected to commence in December 2025, serves as a monumental catalyst for risk assets globally.
She elaborated that once the US Central Bank ceases its liquidity-draining operations and resumes purchasing government bonds, US Treasury yields are likely to decline, the dollar is expected to weaken, and overall financial conditions will ease. Historical trends consistently demonstrate that each instance of the Fed loosening its balance sheet has corresponded with increased fund flows into emerging markets, spurred by a global improvement in risk appetite.
‘For the IHSG, this confluence of factors unlocks substantial opportunities for strengthening,’ Suryanata remarked to Bisnis on Thursday (November 13, 2025). ‘It’s not merely driven by favorable global sentiment, but also by its impeccable timing alongside several potent local catalysts.’
These influential domestic catalysts include a remarkable foreign net buy, soaring to Rp16.65 trillion between November 1-12, 2025. Furthermore, the IHSG‘s technical indicators firmly remain within a bullish pattern, complemented by robust domestic macroeconomic data, notably third-quarter GDP growth surpassing market expectations.
Adding to this positive momentum, Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI continues to exhibit expansive growth, alongside a rising Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The nation has also sustained an impressive trade surplus for an astounding 65 consecutive months, further bolstered by growing export and import performances.
‘Should the upcoming release of cooling US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October further heighten the probability of a Fed rate cut in December, global risk-on sentiment will undeniably intensify, ensuring a sustained flow of funds into Indonesia,’ she elaborated.
Suryanata further elucidated that when foreign capital inundates the market, investors consistently gravitate towards large-cap, highly liquid stocks with significant index weighting. This preference is particularly evident for major banking issuers such as BBCA, BMRI, BBRI, and BBNI, as the banking sector serves as the most accessible proxy for capturing global liquidity recovery. Moreover, Suryanata anticipates that the cyclical consumption sector and retail players are generally poised to receive a substantial boost as the crucial year-end shopping season approaches.
Beyond these, the prevailing risk-on sentiment is also expected to benefit large-cap conglomerate stocks currently on a positive catalyst trajectory, notably those influenced by MSCI rebalancing. Suryanata concluded by noting, ‘Stocks recently added to global indices, like BREN or BRMS, typically become prime targets for passive fund inflows due to their capacity to absorb substantial volumes. Furthermore, specific commodities such as gold and nickel stand to gain considerably if the dollar weakens in the aftermath of the Fed’s QT program conclusion.’
Concurrently, Imam Gunadi, an Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), offered his perspective, explaining that the cessation of the Fed’s QT program signifies a return to more accommodative monetary policies. This shift, he noted, indicates that inflation has become significantly tamer and more controlled, even if it remains marginally above the Fed’s long-term target.
Gunadi asserts that this favorable environment will inevitably spur increased fund flows into emerging markets, with Indonesia being a prime beneficiary. Consequently, risky assets, particularly equities, are strongly positioned for significant appreciation.
‘The IHSG is thus poised to extend its positive trend, propelled by sustained foreign capital inflows and an increasingly accommodative global sentiment,’ Imam elaborated. ‘When foreign capital makes its way into the market, investors typically gravitate towards sectors characterized by substantial capitalization and robust growth prospects. These include banking, property, consumption, commodities, and infrastructure – sectors widely regarded as the most liquid and acutely sensitive to an influx of liquidity.’
Disclaimer: This article is not an invitation to buy or sell stocks. Investment decisions are entirely at the reader’s discretion. Bisnis.com bears no responsibility for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment choices.
