JAKARTA – The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) closed the first trading session of the week with a modest gain of 0.22%, reaching 6,971. This follows a challenging week where the index shed 2.52% amid a foreign capital outflow of Rp5.8 trillion in the regular market. Despite expectations of continued market pressure, analysts suggest that commodity and crude palm oil (CPO) sectors, particularly stocks like AADI and LSIP, offer promising prospects.
David Kurniawan, Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), noted that the market outlook for this week remains in a state of moderate risk-off sentiment. This caution is primarily driven by external pressures, most notably the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to keep global oil prices elevated.
“Fundamentally, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz places significant pressure on net energy-importing nations by driving up production costs. Consequently, this creates inflationary risks and suppresses broader public purchasing power,” David explained in his weekly research report released on Monday (5/4/2026).
Given the prevailing risk-off climate, David warns that the consumer and transportation sectors face significant downside risks due to surging energy costs. Conversely, nickel and crude palm oil (CPO) commodities are expected to demonstrate strong resilience, supported by constrained global supply and favorable domestic policies.
Technically, these market conditions are projected to keep the JCI in a medium-term downtrend, potentially testing support levels between 6,918 and 6,696.
“We advise investors to adopt a more defensive stance by focusing on commodity-based issuers, such as those in the nickel and CPO sectors. These stocks possess stronger fundamental resilience compared to the consumer or transportation sectors, which are highly vulnerable to rising operational expenses,” he added.
To navigate this volatile environment, IPOT Sekuritas has released the following trading recommendations for the week:
1. PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk. (AADI)
- Strategy: Buy
- Entry Level: Rp11,600
- Target Price: Rp12,200
- Stop Loss: Rp11,300
2. PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk. (LSIP)
- Strategy: Buy on pullback
- Entry Level: Rp1,680 – Rp1,700
- Target Price: Rp1,800
- Stop Loss: Rp1,620
3. PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk. (SSIA)
- Strategy: Buy
- Entry Level: Rp1,785
- Target Price: Rp1,960
- Stop Loss: Rp1,700
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. The publisher is not liable for any losses or gains resulting from investment decisions made based on this content.
Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) faces moderate risk-off sentiment following a period of significant foreign capital outflow and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. These external pressures have driven up global oil prices, potentially increasing production costs and inflationary risks for energy-importing nations. Consequently, the index is expected to remain in a medium-term downtrend, testing support levels between 6,918 and 6,696.
Analysts recommend a defensive investment strategy focusing on resilient commodity sectors like nickel and crude palm oil (CPO) instead of vulnerable consumer and transportation sectors. Specific stock recommendations include PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk. (AADI) and PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk. (LSIP) with targeted buy strategies. These issuers are expected to demonstrate stronger fundamental resilience amid the current market volatility and high energy costs.
