JAKARTA – The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) concluded the trading week of May 18–22, 2026, on a shaky note, recording only a single day of gains. Throughout the week, market sentiment was heavily clouded by uncertainty surrounding the new “one-door” export regulation, leading analysts to view the index’s rebound on Friday (May 22) as merely a temporary technical bounce rather than a genuine recovery.
MNC Sekuritas analyst Herditya Wicaksana described the 1.10% rise to 6,162 on Friday as a “fake bounce.” He warned that the JCI faces significant downward pressure as it enters the new trading week on Monday (May 25), with the potential to test the psychological support level of 5,000. Although the Friday surge was supported by increased trading volume, the broader picture remains grim: the JCI shed 8.35% over the course of the week, with selling pressure consistently intensifying.
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“The JCI is currently moving within the [v] wave of the A wave of the (2) wave on the black label. We anticipate a further correction that will likely test the 5,899 level, which serves as our immediate support area,” Herditya stated on Saturday (May 23, 2026). MNC Sekuritas projects that early-week trading will hover around support levels of 5,996 and 5,899, with resistance levels positioned between 6,318 and 6,459.
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Meanwhile, the research team at Stockbit Sekuritas highlights that market volatility remains elevated, primarily driven by confusion over the centralized export regulation managed through Danantara. Analysts point out that conflicting statements from state officials regarding the mechanism and specific details of this centralized commodity export policy indicate a lack of final consensus or clarity on how the rules will be applied.
“This uncertainty has triggered high volatility in the commodity sector over the past few days. We expect this instability to persist until the government releases definitive implementing regulations and the market observes the tangible effects of these policies,” the firm noted.
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Analysts acknowledge that the concept of a centralized export management body is fundamentally sound, particularly as it aims to address deep-rooted issues in the national commodity sector, such as under-invoicing and illegal mining or plantation activities. If implemented effectively, the policy could curb illicit trade, optimize state revenue through taxes and non-tax state revenue (PNBP), and strengthen the Rupiah.
“However, execution remains the primary concern. The government has yet to provide crucial details, such as the flow of goods and timelines, the mechanisms for fund transfers between buyers and sellers, pricing determination methods, and the associated costs during the verification process,” the report added.
The commodity sector is expected to remain under short-term pressure as investors await clarity. Market data shows that most coal mining stocks have faced losses for two consecutive days since President Prabowo officially announced the one-door export policy on May 20, 2026. The initial phase of this mandate covers coal, CPO, and ferroalloys. A transition period is set to begin on June 1, 2026, with full implementation targeted for September 1, 2026, at which point PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia will oversee all export processes, including contracts and transactions.
Despite rumors of a delay until January 1, 2027, the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs has clarified that the original schedule remains unchanged. Amid this climate, investors are advised to closely monitor regulatory updates. As of Friday’s close, despite the 1.1% gain, foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp309.52 billion. Year-to-date, the JCI has corrected by 28.74%, with cumulative foreign net outflows totaling Rp41.63 trillion.
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Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) experienced a volatile week, ending with a total decline of 8.35% despite a minor, technical rebound on May 22, 2026. Analysts attribute this market instability to significant uncertainty surrounding the government’s new centralized “one-door” export policy, which is managed through Danantara. Due to a lack of clarity regarding implementation details and conflicting official statements, market participants remain cautious, with experts warning of further potential corrections and sustained downward pressure.
While the long-term goal of the export policy is to curb illicit trade and boost state revenue, concerns persist regarding operational execution and specific transaction mechanisms. The government has confirmed that the policy will proceed as scheduled, beginning with a transition period on June 1, 2026, and full implementation by September. Until definitive regulations are released, the commodity sector is expected to remain under pressure, contributing to continued foreign net outflows and overall market weakness.
