JAKARTA – Coal stocks are staging a notable recovery as market sentiment improves. Following a shaky start in intraday trading this Friday (May 22, 2026), the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) rebounded to trade in positive territory.
According to data from RTI Infokom, the IHSG closed the first session of trading up by 0.30%, reaching the 6,113.44 level. Although the index opened in the red, it fluctuated between 5,966.86 and 6,135.12 throughout the morning session. By midday, 332 stocks had gained value, 350 had declined, and 135 remained stagnant, bringing the total market capitalization on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to Rp10,593.55 trillion.
Coal Sector Rebound
After sustaining losses over the previous two sessions, major coal issuers led the market’s recovery. PT Harum Energy Tbk. (HRUM) surged 12.68% to Rp800, followed by PT Indika Energy Tbk. (INDY), which climbed 3.57% to Rp2,320. Other notable movers included PT Bumi Resources Tbk. (BUMI) up 3.05% to Rp168, PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk. (AADI) rising 3.86% to Rp8,075, and PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk. (ADRO) gaining 2.71% to Rp2,270. Additionally, PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk. (ITMG) increased by 1.68% to Rp22,700, and PT Bayan Resources Tbk. (BYAN) saw a modest gain of 0.48% to Rp10,525.
These companies represent issuers with export shares exceeding 50%. The recent market volatility was largely triggered by President Prabowo’s announcement of a single-gate export policy on May 20, 2026, which negatively impacted coal stocks during the two subsequent trading days.
Expert Perspectives on Policy Impacts
Abida Massi Armand, an analyst at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, noted that while the market’s initial reaction was pessimistic, the impact is likely to be short-lived. “Uncertainty regarding policy implementation creates a risk premium that suppresses valuations, particularly for companies with high exposure to export markets,” she explained. In the short to medium term, she identified three primary risks: potential pressure on the average selling price (ASP) due to limited direct negotiation flexibility, currency exchange risks if Danantara transactions occur in rupiah, and unclear counterparty costs that could tighten margins.
“However, in the long term, this policy could open new market access through Danantara’s global network and stabilize ASP by reducing price competition among local exporters,” Abida added.
Advising investors on navigating this transition, Abida suggests focusing on issuers with low cost structures that remain competitive despite potential additional fees. For companies with thin margins and high leverage, she recommends a wait-and-see approach until technical regulations are fully clarified.
Echoing these sentiments, Muhammad Wafi, Head of Research at KISI Sekuritas, emphasized the importance of selecting companies with lower production costs, diversified non-coal business segments, and strong balance sheets. He advised against aggressive buying, suggesting instead that investors accumulate positions selectively during market dips. “I prefer ITMG and ADRO as they are more defensive in terms of asset quality and business flexibility, whereas issuers dependent on spot exports are likely to experience higher volatility,” Wafi concluded.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice to buy or sell any stocks. Investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Bisnis.com is not liable for any losses or gains resulting from investment decisions made based on this content.
Summary
The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) rebounded by 0.30% to reach 6,113.44 during the midday trading session on May 22, 2026, following a volatile start. This recovery was largely driven by a rally in major coal stocks, including notable gains from companies like Harum Energy, Indika Energy, and Adaro Andalan Indonesia. The sector had previously faced pressure due to market uncertainty surrounding President Prabowo’s new single-gate export policy.
Market analysts suggest that while the export policy may create short-term risks such as pricing pressure and margin concerns, it could provide long-term stability and market access. Experts advise investors to prioritize companies with strong balance sheets, diversified business segments, and low production costs. Investors are cautioned to remain selective and avoid aggressive buying until the technical regulations of the new policy are fully clarified.
