Rancak Media – , JAKARTA – The sustained decline of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) over the first four months of 2026 has unveiled compelling opportunities for investors to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks at attractive valuations.
Muhammad Wafi, Head of Research at KISI Sekuritas, highlights several stocks presenting appealing valuations, with Price-to-Book Ratio (PBV) ranging from under 1x to 1.5x, coupled with robust earnings visibility. These include key players such as AADI, AKRA, BBCA, MEDC, and AMRT. Additionally, INDF and ICBP emerge as viable options, given their minimal exposure to foreign sentiment.
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In this dynamic market environment, Wafi observes two distinct investor behaviors: local institutions are initiating gradual accumulation at support levels, while retail investors largely adopt a wait-and-see approach, seeking greater certainty.
“However, this is already an opportune time for accumulation, albeit gradually and selectively. The current correction has pushed the market into an attractive accumulation zone for long-term investors. Pay close attention to two critical dates: May 12, 2026, for the MSCI announcement, and June 1, 2026, for the effective rebalancing. Should MSCI not exacerbate the situation, the potential for a significant relief rally is considerable,” Wafi emphasized.
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Concurring with this sentiment, Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, believes investors currently have an excellent window to capitalize on gains from accumulating undervalued stocks. Nafan sees a wide-open opportunity for a market rebound, projecting a positive scenario where the IHSG could reach 8,312 as its 2026 target. This optimism is further underpinned by the IHSG’s current Price-to-Earnings (PER) valuation, which stands below its two-year average.
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Amid the prevailing market conditions, Nafan advises investors to engage in phased accumulation of stocks demonstrating robust fundamentals. Mirae Asset Sekuritas recommends several stocks for the second quarter of this year, including ADMR with a target price of Rp2,130, ADRO at Rp2,780, ANTM at Rp4,390, BBCA at Rp8,350, BBNI at Rp4,520, BBRI at Rp3,760, BMRI at Rp6,200, EMAS at Rp10,900, MEDC at Rp1,820, PGAS at Rp2,320, and UNTR targeting Rp33,975.
“This situation presents a particular opportunity for domestic investors to strategically buy into cheap valuation stocks, irrespective of various existing sentiments, especially the negative outlooks issued by Moody’s and Fitch Ratings,” he added.
SAHAM JUMBO
The sluggish performance of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) year-to-date in 2026 is inextricably linked to the significant drop in prices of Indonesia’s large-capitalization stocks. Stalwarts like DSSA, BBCA, and BREN, traditionally key growth engines for the index, now rank among the IHSG’s top 10 laggards for the year.
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) as of April 30, the IHSG has plummeted approximately 19.55% to 6,956.81 year-to-date in 2026. The index last touched this level in June 2025, when the market was gradually recovering after the US President announced tariff policies in April 2025. Concurrently, foreign investors have recorded a net sell of Rp49.87 trillion from the domestic market this year, pushing the IHSG’s current valuation to a PER of 14.69 times and a PBV of 1.9 times.
A confluence of geopolitical tensions, a scarcity of domestic catalysts, and the implementation of various new capital market reform regulations have contributed to the subdued performance of several prominent stocks throughout the year. Among the top laggards are PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk. (DSSA) and PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk. (BREN).
DSSA experienced a substantial correction of 60.02% to Rp1,615 post-stock split, contributing a significant 214.26 points to the IHSG’s decline. Similarly, PT Barito Renewables Energy Tbk. (BREN) saw a 54.02% correction to Rp4,460, weighing down the IHSG by 193.86 points. Notably, both these stocks were among the nine identified with ‘high shareholding concentration’ (HSC) by the BEI on April 2, 2026, leading to their sharp corrections.
Beyond these two, several leading banking stocks have also experienced similar corrections. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA), for instance, fell 27.55% to Rp5,850, impacting the IHSG by 210.18 points. Likewise, PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (BBRI) dropped 18.31% to Rp2,990, and PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. (BMRI) weakened by 13.92% to Rp4,390. These two banking giants individually dragged the IHSG down by 105.19 points and 55.33 points, respectively.
Other notable corrections include PT MD Entertainment Tbk. (FILM) which corrected 83.59% to Rp2,380, PT Barito Pacific Tbk. (BRPT) which fell 43.88% to Rp1,835, and PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (TLKM) which weakened 19.25% to Rp2,810. PT Bayan Resources Tbk. (BYAN) also plunged 27.39% to Rp11,400, reducing the IHSG by 68.57 points. Furthermore, PT Ekamas Mora Republik Tbk. (MORA) tumbled 60.91% to Rp4,710, impacting the IHSG by 56.97 points.
Bank Central Asia Tbk. – TradingView
PENYEBAB IHSG TERTEKAN
The pressure on the Indonesian stock market this year stems from a confluence of global and domestic sentiments. Rising oil prices, fueled by escalating conflict in Iran, have prompted investors to retreat from riskier assets. Simultaneously, MSCI’s decision to defer changes to the composition of Indonesian stocks has triggered short-term foreign capital outflows.
Abida Massi Armand, an analyst at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, notes that this sharp correction has driven the IHSG’s Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio down to the 11-12 times range. This level is close to a five-year low and significantly below the historical average of 14-15 times. “This reflects that a substantial portion of the risks – including MSCI pressure, rupiah weakening, and FOMC uncertainty – has already been largely discounted by the market,” Abida explained.
For medium-term investors, Abida believes the current IHSG level offers a sufficient ‘margin of safety’ for gradual accumulation. Nevertheless, she cautions that the market still awaits recovery catalysts, particularly stability in the rupiah exchange rate and clearer direction on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy. In the short term, market pressure is also shadowed by potential foreign outflows, estimated to reach Rp15 trillion due to the MSCI decision. However, the medium term presents an opportunity for improvement, supported by internal exchange reforms.
The implementation of ‘high shareholding concentration’ (HSC) rules, enhancements to ‘free float’ regulations, and stricter index criteria are expected to bolster the foundations of the domestic capital market. Abida anticipates a potential return of more structural foreign capital flows within the next 6-12 months as these reform efforts progress. Steps such as meeting the minimum 15% free float threshold and increasing transparency in investor classification are predicted to boost confidence among global institutional investors.
“In a base case scenario, Indonesia has the potential to return to foreign net buying in the third or fourth quarter of 2026, provided the rupiah stabilizes below Rp17,000 and reforms proceed as scheduled,” Abida concluded. On the other hand, a prolonged period of high interest rates continues to pose a challenge for emerging markets, including Indonesia.
Disclaimer: This news is not intended to encourage buying or selling stocks. Investment decisions are solely at the reader’s discretion. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) has experienced a significant decline below 7,000 in the first four months of 2026, creating prime accumulation opportunities for long-term investors. Research from KISI Sekuritas and Mirae Asset Sekuritas identifies fundamentally strong stocks with attractive valuations, including AADI, AKRA, BBCA, MEDC, AMRT, INDF, and ICBP. Experts advise gradual, selective accumulation of undervalued stocks, projecting a potential market rebound and an IHSG target of 8,312 for 2026. This period is seen as an opportune time for domestic investors, despite various negative sentiments.
The IHSG’s year-to-date plummet of nearly 20% to 6,956.81 by April 2026, accompanied by substantial foreign net selling, is attributed to geopolitical tensions, a lack of domestic catalysts, and new capital market regulations. Key large-capitalization stocks like DSSA, BREN, and major banks such as BBCA and BBRI have seen significant corrections. While short-term pressures persist from rising oil prices and potential MSCI-related foreign outflows, analysts suggest the market has largely discounted these risks. Internal exchange reforms and rupiah stabilization below Rp17,000 could lead to structural foreign capital inflows and net buying by Q3 or Q4 2026.
