JAKARTA – Amidst a sluggish Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) weighed down by geopolitical tensions and a lack of domestic catalysts, stocks in the energy and precious metals sectors have emerged as the primary market leaders. These sectors have demonstrated consistent strength, dominating the market landscape since the beginning of 2026.
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) as of April 30, the IHSG has declined by approximately 19.55% year-to-date (YtD), settling at the 6,956.81 level. This performance mirrors the market conditions observed in June 2025, a period when the index was slowly recovering following the US President’s announcement of tariff policies in April of that year. During this current cycle, foreign investors have recorded a net sell of IDR 49.87 trillion from the domestic market. Currently, the IHSG trades at a price-to-earnings (PER) ratio of 14.69 times and a price-to-book value (PBV) of 1.9 times.
Despite these headwinds, at least 10 standout stocks have acted as top leaders, providing significant support to the index and preventing a deeper decline.
BEI data highlights PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk. (EMAS) as the primary engine driving the IHSG this year. By the end of April, EMAS achieved a price gain of 60.81% to reach IDR 8,925, contributing 36.18 points to the index’s movement. Its affiliate, PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk. (MDKA), also displayed robust performance, climbing 41.67% YtD to IDR 3,230 and adding 24.93 points to the index. Similarly, PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk. (AADI) recorded a notable gain of 66.31% to reach IDR 11,600, contributing 15.25 points.
Other significant contributors include PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk. (ADRO), which rose 39.23% to IDR 2,520, and PT Astrindo Nusantara Infrastruktur Tbk. (BIPI), which surged 179.09% to IDR 240, adding 12.22 points. PT Aneka Tambang Tbk. (ANTM) also posted a 18.73% YtD gain to reach IDR 3,740. Meanwhile, PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk. (BNBR) and PT Arkora Hydro Tbk. (ARKO) secured their positions among the top leaders with gains of 68.50% and 62.18%, respectively.
While energy and precious metals dominate, some companies from other sectors have also demonstrated resilience. PT MNC Digital Entertainment Tbk. (MSIN) surged 90.48% YtD to IDR 800, and PT Bank Mega Tbk. (MEGA) posted a 34.49% gain to reach IDR 2,210 per share.
Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Nafan Aji Gusta, attributes the strength of the oil and gas sector to high global oil prices, which serve as a powerful catalyst. Furthermore, coal commodities are benefiting from this trend; as oil prices spike, industries are shifting their energy consumption toward coal, thereby increasing demand and boosting prices for the commodity.
Top 10 IHSG Leaders in 2026:
| Stock Code | Gain | IHSG Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| EMAS | 60.81% | 36.18 points |
| MDKA | 41.67% | 24.93 points |
| AADI | 66.31% | 15.25 points |
| MSIN | 90.48% | 14.38 points |
| ADRO | 39.23% | 13.46 points |
| MEGA | 34.49% | 12.53 points |
| BIPI | 179.07% | 12.22 points |
| ANTM | 18.73% | 11.09 points |
| BNBR | 68.50% | 9.94 points |
| ARKO | 62.18% | 8.26 points |
The current market pressure stems from a convergence of global and domestic sentiments. Rising oil prices, exacerbated by escalating conflicts in Iran, have prompted investors to shy away from riskier assets. Additionally, the MSCI’s decision to suspend changes to the Indonesian stock composition has triggered short-term foreign capital outflows.
Abida Massi Armand, an analyst at BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, notes that the sharp correction has lowered the IHSG’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to between 11 and 12 times. This level approaches a five-year low and sits below the historical average of 14 to 15 times. “This suggests that the majority of risks—including MSCI pressures, rupiah depreciation, and FOMC uncertainty—have already been largely priced into the market,” Abida explained.
For medium-term investors, the current IHSG level may offer a margin of safety for gradual accumulation. However, market recovery remains dependent on the stability of the rupiah and clarity regarding the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. While the market faces potential further outflows of up to IDR 15 trillion due to the MSCI decision, internal reforms, such as the implementation of high shareholding concentration (HSC) rules, improved free-float regulations, and stricter index criteria, are expected to strengthen the foundation of the domestic capital market.
Abida anticipates a structural return of foreign capital within the next 6 to 12 months as these reforms take effect. Meeting the 15% minimum free-float requirement and enhancing transparency in investor classifications could significantly bolster global institutional confidence. “In a base case scenario, Indonesia has the potential to return to a foreign net buy position by the third or fourth quarter of 2026, provided the rupiah stabilizes below IDR 17,000 and reforms proceed on schedule,” Abida concluded. Nevertheless, prolonged high interest rates remain a significant hurdle for emerging markets, including Indonesia.
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Summary
The Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) has faced significant pressure, declining 19.55% year-to-date due to geopolitical tensions and foreign capital outflows. Despite this sluggish performance, stocks in the energy and precious metals sectors—most notably EMAS, MDKA, and AADI—have emerged as key market leaders, providing vital support to the index. Analysts attribute this resilience to high global oil prices and a subsequent rise in coal demand.
Market analysts suggest that while current valuations approach five-year lows, the market has largely priced in major risks such as currency depreciation and monetary uncertainty. Long-term recovery is expected to hinge on currency stabilization and structural reforms, including improved free-float regulations. Experts anticipate a potential return of foreign investment by late 2026 as these domestic improvements begin to bolster institutional confidence.
