Rancak Media – , JAKARTA — Amidst softening commodity prices and ongoing disruptions in the automotive industry, PT Astra International Tbk. (ASII) continues to navigate significant profit pressures, a trend expected to persist until the third quarter of 2025. The crucial question for investors remains: what lies ahead for ASII shares?
According to its financial reports, Astra International posted a net profit attributable to the parent entity of Rp24.47 trillion for the third quarter of 2025. This figure represents a 5.34% year-on-year (YoY) decline compared to the Rp25.85 trillion recorded in the same period of the previous year. Concurrently, the conglomerate’s revenue also saw a slight decrease of 1.1% YoY, falling to Rp243.6 trillion by Q3 2025 from Rp246.32 trillion in Q3 2024.
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Christofer Kojongian, an analyst at Sucor Sekuritas, elucidated in his research that while Astra’s overall earnings were bolstered by a robust recovery in the automotive segment and sustained growth within financial services, the decline in Q3 2025 profit was primarily driven by weaker performance in commodity-related segments. This downturn was largely attributed to lower coal prices, which subsequently impacted the mining contractor business significantly.
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A deeper dive into Astra’s divisional performance reveals that the most substantial profit contraction occurred in the heavy equipment, mining, construction, and energy division, managed by PT United Tractors Tbk. (UNTR). Despite Astra’s 59.5% ownership in UNTR, the division reported a 26% drop in net profit, reaching Rp7 trillion. This decline persisted even as UNTR’s coal sales increased to 9.2 million tons, including 2.8 million tons of metallurgical coal, underscoring the severe impact of falling commodity selling prices.
In contrast, other key business lines demonstrated commendable resilience. The automotive and mobility division recorded a 1% increase in net profit to Rp8.8 trillion, buoyed by strong motorcycle and component sales, even as the national car market experienced some softening. Similarly, the financial services division saw an 8% rise in net profit, reaching Rp6.7 trillion, driven by an expanding consumer financing portfolio. The agribusiness segment, through PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk. (AALI), also performed strongly, with net profit surging by 34% to Rp853 billion.
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Based on the Q3 2025 profit figures, Sucor Sekuritas projects Astra’s full-year 2025 net profit to reach Rp31.5 trillion, representing an 8% YoY decrease. This cautious outlook is primarily informed by weakening consumer purchasing power, which is expected to continue impacting the automotive sector, alongside persistent lower coal prices. However, looking ahead to 2026, Sucor Sekuritas anticipates a moderate profit recovery to Rp32.5 trillion YoY, underpinned by improving automotive demand fueled by enhanced purchasing power, resilient financial services, and a stronger performance from gold mining operations.
Stock Performance
Despite the prevailing profit pressures, ASII shares have shown remarkable strength. Data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) indicates that ASII’s stock price closed at Rp6,325 per share on Friday, November 7, 2025, marking a 1.58% gain for the day. Furthermore, the stock has maintained a robust positive trajectory year-to-date (YTD) in 2025, strengthening an impressive 29.80% since the first trading day of the year.
Sucor Sekuritas, while acknowledging Astra’s strong fundamentals, has maintained a Hold rating for ASII with a target price of Rp6,000 per share. The brokerage firm highlights limited short-term re-rating potential given the weaker automotive demand and subdued commodity prices. Christofer Kojongian stated that Sucor Sekuritas would adopt a more positive stance once profit visibility strengthens, driven by improved automotive sales, reduced competition from Chinese brands, and firmer commodity prices.
Meanwhile, Christopher Rusli, an analyst at Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia, also reiterated a Hold recommendation for ASII, setting a higher target price of Rp6,500 per share in light of the company’s financial performance. Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia identifies several downside risks for ASII, including faster-than-expected electric vehicle (EV) adoption beyond Jakarta, the influx of affordable battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and the current lack of incentives for hybrid vehicles, a segment Astra is actively developing.
In contrast, JP Morgan, through research authored by analysts including Benny Kurniawan and Henry Wibowo, maintains a positive outlook on Astra International. “Our positive view on Astra is driven by the potential for increased shareholder returns following Astra’s announcement regarding a strategic review,” wrote Benny and his team in their report. JP Morgan anticipates that ASII will enhance its capital allocation practices, which is expected to result in a higher dividend payout ratio of 65% for the 2025 financial year, a significant increase from 50% in the previous financial year.
JP Morgan estimates that ASII will generate annual free cash flow (FCF) of Rp25 trillion-Rp30 trillion in 2025, which it sees as the theoretical limit for Astra’s future dividend payments. “We continue to assess Astra based on dividend yield as we believe their core businesses are ex-growth, and investors are increasingly viewing Astra from a yield perspective,” noted Benny’s team. However, JP Morgan also acknowledges limited downside risk for ASII shares stemming from a decline in business fundamentals, along with other risks such as the absence of a significant recovery post-strategic review and continued suboptimal capital allocation.
Buyback Strategy
In conjunction with its financial announcements, ASII is set to execute a significant corporate action: a share buyback program of up to Rp2 trillion. The company plans to conduct this buyback over a three-month period, commencing approximately on November 3, 2025, and concluding by January 30, 2026. JP Morgan has also highlighted this buyback program in its report.
“We believe this buyback program, along with UNTR’s share buyback announcement yesterday, is part of the group’s ongoing strategic review,” explained Benny and his team. JP Morgan reiterated that the primary goal of this buyback is to enhance shareholder returns. Consequently, JP Morgan underscores its optimism regarding ASII’s share prospects, citing robust automotive business performance and the share buyback program as catalysts for potentially higher gains. The firm anticipates a positive market reaction to both the performance results and the buyback announcement.
Astra International President Director Djony Bunarto Tjondro elaborated that the buyback program would be executed in full compliance with the Financial Services Authority (OJK) regulations concerning share buybacks during periods of significant market fluctuation. He emphasized that this strategic move reflects management’s strong confidence in the company’s future prospects and its capability to generate sustainable cash flows, while also supporting the government’s efforts to maintain capital market stability.
According to Djony, the primary factor behind the decline in ASII’s net profit for Q3 2025 was the lower coal prices, which exerted considerable pressure on its subsidiary’s mining operations. “However, solid contributions from our other businesses have bolstered the Group’s performance resilience, and we anticipate that 2025 performance will align with the Group’s current trajectory,” Djony stated in a recent written announcement. He further added, “We remain committed to maintaining financial discipline and operational excellence, leveraging our strong balance sheet to seize growth opportunities and enhance shareholder value.”
Disclaimer: This news is not intended to encourage the purchase or sale of shares. Investment decisions rest solely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
PT Astra International Tbk. (ASII) melaporkan penurunan laba bersih sebesar 5,34% secara tahunan menjadi Rp24,47 triliun dan penurunan pendapatan 1,1% pada Kuartal III 2025. Kontraksi laba ini terutama disebabkan oleh melemahnya harga komoditas yang berdampak signifikan pada divisi alat berat dan pertambangan, yang mengalami penurunan laba bersih sebesar 26%. Meskipun demikian, segmen otomotif, jasa keuangan, dan agrobisnis ASII menunjukkan ketahanan dengan peningkatan profitabilitas, menyeimbangkan penurunan secara keseluruhan.
Terlepas dari tekanan laba, saham ASII menunjukkan kinerja kuat, menguat 29,80% sepanjang tahun 2025. Sementara beberapa analis mempertahankan peringkat “Hold” karena tantangan jangka pendek, JP Morgan memiliki pandangan positif, didorong oleh tinjauan strategis Astra yang berpotensi meningkatkan pengembalian kepada pemegang saham, termasuk rasio pembayaran dividen yang lebih tinggi sebesar 65% untuk tahun fiskal 2025. Selain itu, ASII akan melaksanakan program pembelian kembali saham senilai hingga Rp2 triliun antara November 2025 dan Januari 2026, yang juga dipandang sebagai strategi untuk meningkatkan nilai pemegang saham.
