Rancak Media – The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Composite, or IHSG, is expected to experience significant volatility this week with potential for a limited technical rebound. Trading activity is anticipated to be more sensitive as the market will only operate for three days due to the national Eid al-Adha holidays.
During the previous trading period from May 18 to 22, 2026, the composite index faced heavy pressure, recording a sharp correction of 8.35% to close at 6,162.045. At its lowest point last week, the index touched 5,966, marking its weakest level so far this year.
Brigita Kinari, an Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), explained that the index’s decline was primarily triggered by a combination of risk-off sentiment among investors. Externally, the market was overshadowed by the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to maintain high interest rates for an extended period. Domestically, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points fueled concerns regarding potential liquidity tightening in the economy.
Investor anxiety was further exacerbated by plans to implement a “one-door” export policy for strategic commodities. However, rumors regarding the postponement of this policy until January 1, 2027, managed to spark a significant rebound at the end of the week, driven largely by surges in the basic materials and energy sectors.
Amid a “wait and see” approach following the FTSE Russell review, foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp309.52 billion by the weekend. Consequently, the total market capitalization of the Indonesia Stock Exchange shrank by 10.06% to Rp10,635 trillion. Despite this, the average daily transaction value rose by 15.68% to Rp21.77 trillion, indicating high levels of portfolio repositioning among market participants.
For the upcoming week, Kinari noted that domestic investors will focus on the implementation of the one-door export policy through Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), which reportedly remains effective starting June 1, 2026. On a brighter note, market sentiment has been bolstered by relatively constructive results from the FTSE Russell review, easing some concerns. Additionally, Bank Indonesia’s policy to hike rates has begun to show a positive impact on the Rupiah exchange rate.
From a technical perspective, the IHSG is still trading well below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-50) at 7,166, suggesting that the medium-term downward trend remains dominant. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also stays in negative territory, meaning last weekend’s gains are still categorized as a technical rebound rather than a major trend reversal.
In the short term, the IHSG is projected to move sideways with high volatility within a support range of 5,899–5,996 and a resistance range of 6,318–6,459. Selling pressure is expected to subside once the rebalancing period concludes, provided the Rupiah remains stable and if U.S.-Iran negotiations succeed in lowering global energy price pressures.
IPOT’s Stock Recommendations for the Week:
PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk. (MDKA)
– Recommendation: Buy
– Entry: 2,720
– Price Target: 3,000
– Stop Loss: 2,610
PT Bank BTPN Tbk. (BTPN)
– Recommendation: Buy
– Entry: 2,380
– Price Target: 2,530
– Stop Loss: 2,310
PT Ultra Jaya Milk Industry & Trading Company Tbk. (ULTJ)
– Recommendation: Buy
– Entry: 1,635
– Price Target: 1,725
– Stop Loss: 1,590
Disclaimer: This report is not intended as an invitation to buy or sell shares. Investment decisions rest entirely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or profits arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) Composite (IHSG) is anticipated to experience limited technical rebound this week amidst significant volatility, operating only three days due to Eid al-Adha holidays. Last week, the IHSG saw a sharp correction of 8.35%, closing at 6,162.045, influenced by external hawkish US Federal Reserve sentiment and domestic interest rate hikes by Bank Indonesia. Investor anxiety was also heightened by the planned “one-door” export policy, though rumors of its postponement provided a brief rebound.
Technical indicators suggest the IHSG remains in a medium-term downward trend, trading below its 50-day SMA. The index is expected to move sideways with volatility in the short term, with specific support and resistance levels identified. For the upcoming week, domestic investors will monitor the export policy implementation and the FTSE Russell review results, which have provided some positive sentiment. The Rupiah’s stability and potential easing of global energy price pressures are also key factors to watch. Recommended stocks for the week are MDKA, BTPN, and ULTJ, all with “Buy” recommendations.
