Mining Stock Recommendations Following New Single-Gate Export Policy

Rancak Media – , JAKARTA – Indo Premier Sekuritas has revised its recommendation for Indonesia’s mining sector from ‘overweight’ to ‘neutral’, citing the lingering uncertainty surrounding a new “one-door” export policy. This significant policy shift is anticipated to cast a shadow over the sector’s performance in the short to medium term.

The Indonesian government recently issued a new Government Regulation (PP) mandating that certain strategic natural resource export commodities must be sold through a single channel via State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN). This move aims to centralize control and streamline export processes for key Indonesian resources.

President Prabowo Subianto highlighted three primary export commodities slated for initial implementation under this new mechanism: crude palm oil (CPO), coal, and ferro alloy. These commodities alone are projected to generate substantial annual foreign exchange earnings, potentially reaching US$65 billion, equivalent to Rp1,100 trillion.

President Prabowo further elaborated that under this revamped system, the proceeds from these export sales, facilitated by the designated BUMNs, would then be forwarded to the relevant business operators managing the associated activities. He characterized this arrangement as a “marketing facility” designed to optimize resource management.

The Head of State underscored the core objectives behind this new regulation: to bolster oversight, rigorously combat practices of underinvoicing and transfer pricing, and thwart the suspected illicit flight of export proceeds (DHE). These measures are intended to ensure greater transparency and accountability within the export chain.

Ryan Winiptas, an analyst at Indo Premier Sekuritas, concurs that the policy’s fundamental goals are to curb illegal mining activities and reduce transfer pricing, ultimately leading to a boost in state revenue and tax collection. This alignment of objectives, however, has not been met with universal market acceptance.

Despite these stated benefits, the market has responded negatively, primarily due to a prevailing lack of clarity regarding the precise mechanisms and practical implementation of the policy. Consequently, the stock prices of several coal and metal mining companies monitored by Indo Premier Sekuritas experienced significant declines, ranging from 3% to 15%.

“This issue persists as an additional negative sentiment for the mining sector. Therefore, we are lowering our recommendation for the sector to Neutral from the previous Overweight,” Winiptas stated in a written research report quoted on Wednesday (May 20, 2026).

Nonetheless, even amidst the sector downgrade, Winiptas maintains a ‘buy’ recommendation for ANTM (PT Aneka Tambang Tbk) as a top pick. This endorsement stems from ANTM’s clearer performance prospects and the analyst’s belief that the policy’s impact on the company will be comparatively less severe than on other issuers in the sector.

Prior to this, Winiptas had noted that even the postponement of a planned royalty hike failed to fully restore market confidence. On May 8, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) held a public consultation concerning a proposed royalty increase for the metal and commodity sectors. This initial sentiment had caused several metal mining stock prices to plunge by up to 15%.

Crucially, even after the indefinite delay of the royalty hike plan, metal mining stock prices have not yet fully recovered to their levels before the royalty issue first emerged. This indicates that the market remains skeptical and has not entirely trusted that the policy has been genuinely abandoned.

“The uncertainty surrounding the export policy, compounded by the persistent royalty issue, means investor confidence in the sector has not fully recovered, despite the relatively stable prices of underlying commodities, particularly nickel,” Winiptas added, highlighting the confluence of negative factors.

Adding another layer of complexity, Minister of ESDM, Bahlil Lahadalia, has reportedly indicated that the government is contemplating the implementation of a scheme similar to a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for the coal and nickel sectors, mirroring the model currently employed in Indonesia’s oil and gas (migas) industry.

To provide context, PSC schemes in the oil and gas sector typically operate under two primary models: gross split and cost recovery, each with distinct implications for revenue sharing and operational expenses.

Currently, nickel mining operations largely function under either a Contract of Work (CoW) or various mining business permits (IUP/IUPK), where companies are obliged to pay royalties as a percentage of their revenue. This existing framework is generally considered to be analogous to the gross split model seen in the oil and gas industry.

However, if a scheme resembling cost recovery were to be adopted, the government could potentially unlock additional revenue streams through a windfall profit tax (WPT). This tax would be levied if a company’s net profit, EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes), or gross profit margin surpasses predetermined thresholds, thereby automatically increasing Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP).

“Should this policy be implemented, we believe its impact could be more beneficial for smaller-scale mining companies, as cost burdens would be shared between the company and the government. Conversely, larger mining companies would likely face increased royalty or tax burdens,” the analyst clarified, outlining the differentiated effects across company sizes.

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