Rancak Media – JAKARTA—In an optimistic scenario, JP Morgan forecasts that the Indonesia Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) could continue its strengthening trend, potentially breaking through the 10,000 mark by 2026. This positive outlook highlights several key stocks as top picks, including ASII, ICBP, and ANTM.
The analyst team at JP Morgan Securities projects a brighter future for Indonesia’s capital market following the political transition period in 2025. This optimism is underpinned by expectations of increased fiscal spending, both from the national budget and Danantara initiatives. Such spending is anticipated to fuel economic growth and boost domestic consumption, further supported by improving global macroeconomic conditions and easing geopolitical tensions worldwide.
Furthermore, JP Morgan anticipates a continuation of the monetary easing trend, predicting an additional 50 basis point reduction in Bank Indonesia’s (BI) interest rates next year. This move is expected to coincide with improved system liquidity, while the current account deficit (CAD) is projected to remain at a manageable level, specifically below 1% of GDP.
“We set our IHSG base case target for the end of 2026 at 9,100, with a bull case target of 10,000 and a bear case of 7,800,” stated JP Morgan’s Research Team, as quoted on Tuesday (December 2, 2025).
Conversely, JP Morgan identifies the primary risk to this positive outlook as rupiah volatility. Persistent depreciation of the rupiah could potentially erode business and consumer confidence, leading to capital outflows from the market.
Shifting focus to sectors, JP Morgan highlighted, “Our primary overweight sectors heading into the next year are Industrials, Materials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, and Property.”
Within these favored sectors, JP Morgan’s stock selections for 2026 include prominent large-cap players such as BBCA, ASII, ICBP, ANTM, and GOTO. For the small and medium-cap (SMC) segment, the firm recommends ISAT, EMTK, JSMR, MAPI, and PWON.
Out of these twelve recommended stocks, eleven have received an “overweight” rating from JP Morgan, with only BBCA being assigned a “neutral” rating.
Specifically, JP Morgan has set a target price for BBCA shares at Rp8,000. Additionally, target prices include Rp6,250 for ASII, Rp12,900 for ICBP, Rp95 for GOTO, and Rp3,700 per share for ANTM.
For small and medium-cap selections, JP Morgan estimates a target price for ISAT at Rp2,900 per share. Other estimated targets are Rp1,600 for EMTK, Rp5,175 for JSMR, Rp1,690 for MAPI, and Rp560 per share for PWON.
Disclaimer: This news article is not intended as an invitation to buy or sell shares. Investment decisions rest solely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
JPMorgan memperkirakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Indonesia berpotensi menembus 10.000 pada tahun 2026 dalam skenario optimistis, dengan target dasar di 9.100. Prospek positif ini didukung oleh proyeksi peningkatan belanja fiskal, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan konsumsi domestik pasca-transisi politik 2025. Selain itu, JPMorgan mengantisipasi pemotongan suku bunga Bank Indonesia sebesar 50 basis poin tahun depan, seiring dengan likuiditas sistem yang membaik dan defisit transaksi berjalan yang terkendali. Namun, risiko utama adalah volatilitas rupiah yang dapat mengikis kepercayaan dan memicu aliran modal keluar.
JPMorgan mengunggulkan sektor Industri, Material, Konsumen Primer, Konsumen Sekunder, dan Properti untuk tahun depan. Pilihan saham teratas untuk 2026 mencakup perusahaan kapitalisasi besar seperti ASII, ICBP, ANTM, dan GOTO, serta saham kapitalisasi menengah dan kecil seperti ISAT dan EMTK. Sebagian besar dari dua belas saham yang direkomendasikan ini mendapatkan peringkat “overweight”, dengan pengecualian BBCA yang diberi peringkat “neutral”, dan masing-masing memiliki target harga spesifik.
