Rancak Media – JAKARTA — Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to prioritize the stability of the rupiah exchange rate in its future monetary policy decisions. However, the possibility of further cuts to the benchmark interest rate remains open.
It is worth noting that BI maintained its benchmark interest rate, or BI Rate, at 4.75% following the November 2025 Board of Governors’ Meeting (RDG). This marks the second consecutive month that the BI Rate has been held steady, after previous cuts totaling 150 basis points (1.5%) since September 2024.
Hosianna Evalita Situmorang, an economist from PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk., highlighted that BI’s future policy direction would primarily focus on stabilizing the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. Related: The Rupiah Strengthens Against the US Dollar Today (19/11) After BI Rate Held at 4.75%.
“Amid higher uncertainty impacting the rupiah’s exchange rate against the US dollar, BI is anticipated to prioritize rupiah stability in the short term. Nevertheless, BI still sees room for interest rate cuts to foster growth, provided that exchange rate stability and inflation remain under control,” Hosianna explained in a written statement on Wednesday (19/11/2025).
Hosianna also observed enhanced macroprudential coordination between monetary authorities (BI) and fiscal authorities (Ministry of Finance/Kemenkeu), evidenced by the attendance of Deputy Minister of Finance Thomas A. Djiwandono at this month’s RDG. Related: BI Again Maintains BI Rate at 4.75%!
This collaboration, she further elaborated, aligns with the regulations stipulated in the Law on Financial Sector Development and Reinforcement (P2SK).
On the other hand, David Sumual, Chief Economist at PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BCA), believes there is still a chance for another interest rate reduction in December 2025, particularly if the probability of a Fed Fund Rate cut by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (The Fed), also increases. Related: November 2025 BI Rate Projection: Interest Rate Remains at 4.75% to Maintain Stability.
“The opportunity remains if the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rises. So far, based on the Fed Rate futures market, the probability of a Fed rate cut has fallen below 50% from previously above 90% in early November,” David told Bisnis.
BI’s decision in November 2025 to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.75% was consistent with the consensus forecast among economists. The deposit rate was also maintained at 3.75%, and the lending rate at 5.5%. These policy measures in the final two months of 2025 are designed to safeguard the stability of the rupiah exchange rate. Beyond interest rates, the central bank’s efforts to maintain market stability also involve spot, DNDF (Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward), and NDF (Non-Deliverable Forward) mechanisms.
Furthermore, BI is actively strengthening spot and swap instruments in yuan and yen denominations to boost Local Currency Transactions (LCT). This initiative is aligned with Indonesia’s LCT with China, which now averages US$1 billion per month, as well as with Japan, both of which are Indonesia’s largest trading partners.
Domestically, BI has significantly increased its purchases of government securities (SBN) as a financing mechanism for these instruments. As of November 17, the total reached Rp289.9 trillion, with the majority (Rp212.6 trillion) facilitated through debt switching with the government.
During the November 2025 RDG press conference, BI Governor Perry Warjiyo stated that the interest rate decision is consistent with the low inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, which remain within the target range of 2.5% ± 1%. He emphasized that this approach also aims to maintain rupiah exchange rate stability amidst global uncertainty and to reinforce economic growth.
“Going forward, Bank Indonesia will continuously evaluate the scope for interest rate reductions to stimulate higher economic growth, in line with low inflation projections, while consistently preserving the stability of the rupiah exchange rate,” he affirmed.
Summary
Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained its benchmark interest rate, the BI Rate, at 4.75% in November 2025 for the second consecutive month. This decision aims to safeguard the stability of the rupiah exchange rate amidst global uncertainty and aligns with low inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The deposit and lending rates were also kept steady to ensure market stability.
Economists anticipate potential future cuts to the benchmark rate, particularly if US interest rates also decrease and domestic inflation remains controlled. BI itself indicated it would continuously evaluate opportunities for rate reductions to stimulate economic growth, provided exchange rate stability is preserved. Additionally, BI is strengthening macroprudential coordination with the Ministry of Finance and promoting Local Currency Transactions.
