Rancak Media JAKARTA – The Indonesian coal sector is experiencing a significant shift as a new “single-door export policy” enters its transitional phase this June. Amidst this change, several market analysts are projecting an overweight position for coal issuer stocks, signaling cautious optimism for the industry.
According to explanations from the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, the initial phase of the Danantara Strategic Investment Fund (DSI) implementation encompasses three key commodities: coal, crude palm oil (CPO), and ferro alloy. The government has designated a transition period throughout 2026, with the full implementation slated to commence on January 1, 2027.
During this transitional phase, which began on June 1, 2026, individual companies will continue their export activities as usual. However, all export-related operations are now mandated to be reported to the DSI via a system seamlessly integrated with the Directorate General of Customs and Excise. This period will be crucial for the government to evaluate the policy’s effectiveness before its comprehensive rollout.
: The Government’s Single-Door Export Policy: Indo Tambangraya (ITMG) Responds
Andrey Wijaya, Head of Research at RHB Sekuritas, suggests that in the short term, this single-door export policy could heighten operational and administrative uncertainties for coal exporters, particularly during the transition. Investors, he notes, will be closely monitoring for potential slowdowns in export processes, shipments, and the overall cash flow of companies.
However, Wijaya adds a caveat: should the implementation proceed smoothly without disrupting export volumes, the fundamental impact on the performance of coal issuers is anticipated to be relatively limited.
“We currently hold an overweight view on the coal sector. Beyond its still-attractive valuations, the outlook for coal prices has also improved compared to several months ago,” he told Bisnis on Tuesday, June 2, 2026.
Indonesian coal is also perceived to retain strong competitiveness in global export markets. Furthermore, elevated global energy prices, driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, continue to be a significant supporting factor for the commodity’s demand.
From the perspective of individual issuers, Wijaya highlights PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk. (ITMG) and PT Bukit Asam Tbk. (PTBA) as top picks. Both companies are recognized for their solid fundamentals, robust financial positions, and the potential to offer attractive dividend yields to investors.
Despite these promising prospects, the coal sector is not without its challenges. A primary concern is the risk of a global economic slowdown, which could potentially suppress energy consumption and, consequently, coal demand in international markets.
Additionally, Wijaya points to changes in government regulations, such as the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) policy, adjustments to royalties, and environmental rules, as factors that market participants must carefully consider. The inherent volatility of commodity prices and fluctuations in the rupiah’s exchange rate could also influence the performance of coal companies.
Looking further ahead, Andrey Wijaya also identifies the long-term global energy transition trend towards cleaner energy as a persistent challenge that will continue to shape investor sentiment towards the coal sector.
Nevertheless, several positive catalysts are poised to bolster the performance of coal stocks moving forward. Persistent global geopolitical uncertainties are expected to keep energy prices at relatively strong levels. Concurrently, demand from Asian nations, which largely rely on coal for power generation, is projected to remain robust.
He further observes that current coal stock valuations remain appealing after recent corrections. The high dividend yields offered by the sector continue to make it a favored choice for investors seeking consistent dividend income.
“Should the pressures on the rupiah and financial markets begin to ease, investor interest in commodity stocks, including coal, has the potential to rebound,” he explained.
Conversely, Nafan Aji, Senior Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, posits that while the policy could exert pressure on pure coal exporters and the palm oil sector, it might simultaneously offer a positive sentiment for certain companies with strategic ties to the government.
Nafan identifies coal companies heavily reliant on export markets as their primary revenue source as the most vulnerable. This aligns with DSI’s potential role in harmonizing coal export volumes with domestic energy needs through the DMO policy and national energy transition targets.
With a more centralized oversight mechanism, companies’ flexibility to capitalize on surges in global coal prices is expected to become more restricted. A potentially more bureaucratic export approval process could diminish issuers’ agility in executing sales strategies when international market prices are high.
Moreover, concerns are emerging that the DSI might introduce new export levies, specifically earmarked to support the funding of energy transition programs or a “green fund.” If such a scheme is implemented, the profit margins of coal companies could face significant pressure.
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk. – TradingView
Under such a scenario, PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk. (ITMG) and PT Harum Energy Tbk. (HRUM) are cited as the most susceptible issuers. Both companies have a substantial proportion of exports and lack the domestic market buffer enjoyed by state-owned enterprises like PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA).
“A high dependence on export markets renders ITMG and HRUM more sensitive to potential tightening of export permits or changes in trading mechanisms implemented by DSI,” he stated in his research, quoted on Tuesday, June 2, 2026.
Amidst these potential pressures, Mirae holds that PT Bukit Asam Tbk. (PTBA) is positioned more advantageously.
Bukit Asam Tbk. – TradingView
As an integral part of the MIND ID mining holding company, operating within the Danantara ecosystem, PTBA is perceived to have a structural affinity with the new regulator. DSI is anticipated to ensure PTBA’s coal supply for domestic needs remains stable, while the company’s export quotas could potentially receive support through government-to-government (G-to-G) trading schemes developed by the Danantara Investment Fund.
Consequently, Mirae assesses PTBA’s outlook as neutral with a positive bias. The risk of export barriers is projected to be lower for PTBA compared to private coal issuers who are heavily reliant on export markets.
Disclaimer: This article is not an invitation to buy or sell shares. Investment decisions rest solely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from readers’ investment decisions.
Summary
The Indonesian coal sector is transitioning with a new “single-door export policy” (DSI), beginning its transitional phase in June 2026 for full implementation by 2027. Market analysts generally hold an “overweight” view on coal stocks due to attractive valuations and improved prices, despite potential short-term operational and administrative uncertainties. Strong global demand, geopolitical factors, and competitive Indonesian coal support the sector, with companies like ITMG and PTBA noted for their robust fundamentals and dividend potential.
Challenges include global economic slowdown risks, regulatory changes like DMO, and the long-term energy transition. The DSI policy may pressure export-reliant firms like ITMG and HRUM, potentially limiting their flexibility and introducing new export levies for a “green fund.” However, PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) is considered more advantageous due to its government ties, which could ensure stable domestic supply and support its export quotas.
