The benchmark coal price for the highest calorific value recorded a notable decline in the first half of December 2025, dropping by US$3.77 per ton compared to the second half of November. This downturn is primarily attributed to a significant increase in domestic coal production by Indonesia’s key export destinations, which has subsequently reduced their import needs.
Throughout 2025, the trend for the benchmark coal price (HBA) has largely been downward. Starting at US$124.01 per ton in January, the HBA had fallen to US$98.26 per ton by early December, marking a substantial decrease of US$25.75 per ton over the year. This persistent decline reflects broader shifts in the global energy landscape.
Bisman Bakhtiar, Executive Director of the Center for Energy and Mining Law Studies (Pushep), confirmed that global demand for coal is indeed currently weakening. This is largely due to major economies like China, India, and several other nations bolstering their domestic production capabilities, thereby lessening their reliance on imported coal.
Adding to the pressure on coal demand is the steady global increase in the adoption and utilization of renewable energy sources. As countries progressively shift towards greener alternatives, the demand for conventional fossil fuels like coal naturally diminishes, contributing to the observed price drops.
“Overall, industrial activity and economic conditions in various countries are experiencing a slowdown,” Bisman told Katadata on Tuesday, December 2nd. He predicted that prices are likely to remain stagnant or even face further declines until the end of the year, as there are no clear triggers in sight that would drive an upward price movement. “Thus, prices will stagnate and have the potential to fall,” he asserted.
Bisman emphasized that this period of stagnant prices serves as a crucial warning, or a “yellow light,” for businesses operating in the coal sector. He urged industry players to proactively prepare for market diversification, seeking alternative export destinations that present promising potential. Furthermore, Bisman stressed the importance of accelerating downstream processing efforts, encouraging the transformation of coal into other forms of energy or valuable products. Concurrently, he highlighted the government’s role in regulating and managing production levels in a balanced and proportionate manner to prevent the coal market from becoming increasingly oversupplied.
In accordance with the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 388.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2025, the reference coal price is categorized into four distinct groups:
- HBA with a calorific value of 6,322 kilocalories (kcal) per kilogram (kg) GAR decreased by US$3.77 per ton compared to the second half of November 2025, dropping from US$102.03 per ton to US$98.26 per ton.
- HBA I with a calorific value of 5,300 kcal per kg GAR increased from US$67.29 per ton to US$67.99 per ton.
- HBA II with a calorific value of 4,100 kcal per kg GAR saw a slight increase from US$44.29 per ton to US$44.37 per ton.
- HBA III with a calorific value of 3,400 kcal per kg GAR rose from US$33.88 per ton to US$34.15 per ton.
Notably, coal with a calorific value of 6,322 kcal/kg GAR is widely used as the benchmark selling price for electricity generation and industrial fuel, with the exception of the metal mineral processing and refining industries.
Reference Mineral Prices
Beyond coal, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources also established the reference prices for various mineral commodities for the first half of December 2025. The reference price for nickel was set at US$14,666.67 per metric ton dry (dmt). Meanwhile, cobalt was priced at US$48,139 per dmt, and lead at US$2,013.93 per dmt.
Below is a comprehensive list of reference prices for other key mineral commodities:
- Zinc: US$3,178.47 per dmt
- Aluminum: US$2,816.67 per dmt
- Copper: US$10,775.10 per dmt
- Gold (as a by-product mineral): US$4,079.87 per troy ounce
- Silver (as a by-product mineral): US$50.55 per troy ounce
- Tin ingot Pb 300: settlement price ICDX and JFX on the day of sale
- Tin ingot Pb 200: settlement price ICDX and JFX on the day of sale
- Tin ingot Pb 100: settlement price ICDX and JFX on the day of sale
- Tin ingot Pb 050: settlement price ICDX and JFX on the day of sale
- Tin ingot 4NINE: settlement price ICDX and JFX on the day of sale
- Gold metal: LBMA Gold PM Fix on the day of sale
- Silver metal: LBMA Silver Fix on the day of sale
- Manganese: US$3.38 per dmt
- Lateritic/Hematite/Magnetite Iron Ore: US$1.52 per dmt
- Chrome Ore: US$6.37 per dmt
- Titanium Concentrate: US$8.67 per dmt
Summary
The benchmark coal price for the highest calorific value experienced a significant decline in the first half of December 2025, falling by US$3.77 per ton to US$98.26 per ton. This downturn is primarily attributed to increased domestic coal production in key export destinations, reducing their import needs. The overall trend for coal prices throughout 2025 has been downward, driven by weakening global demand, the increasing adoption of renewable energy, and a slowdown in industrial activity. Experts predict prices will remain stagnant or fall further, urging industry players to diversify markets and accelerate downstream processing.
In addition to coal, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources also established reference prices for various mineral commodities for the first half of December 2025. Key prices include nickel at US$14,666.67 per metric ton dry (dmt), cobalt at US$48,139 per dmt, and lead at US$2,013.93 per dmt. Reference prices were also set for other significant minerals such as zinc, aluminum, copper, and by-product minerals like gold and silver.
