Rancak Media – The crypto market finally breathed a sigh of relief on Monday (10/11) after a tumultuous weekend. Bitcoin successfully recouped significant losses, stabilizing around USD 106,000 (equivalent to IDR 1.77 billion at an exchange rate of IDR 16,700). After an initial plunge of nearly 10% earlier in the week, Bitcoin’s weekly decline narrowed to -4.99%.
Two primary factors fueled this sharp rebound: news signaling the imminent end of the United States government shutdown and a social media post from President Donald Trump promising “people’s dividends.”
The sharp correction early last week was triggered by rumors of a “Big Short” from legendary investor Michael Burry, who reportedly took a $1.2 billion (IDR 20.04 trillion) short position against AI stocks like Nvidia and Palantir. This negative sentiment spread quickly to the crypto market, causing Bitcoin to drop by approximately 5% in a single day, while altcoins experienced even deeper corrections.
On-chain analysts noted significant sell-offs originating from institutional investors who had been reducing their exposure since the “Black Friday Crash” on October 10. A shockwave in the stock market on Tuesday (4/11) further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, pushing Bitcoin below the psychological $100,000 (IDR 1.67 billion) level to hit a low of $99,000 (IDR 1.65 billion) on Wednesday (5/11).
Technically, Bitcoin briefly approached its 365-day Moving Average (MA) line, a crucial level often signaling a trend reversal towards a bear market. However, this time, the price managed to hold above this MA, mirroring its resilience during two previous crises: the Yen carry-trade unwinding in August 2024 and the tariff crisis in April 2025.
“As long as the price remains above the 365-day MA, Bitcoin’s long-term bullish structure remains secure,” stated an analyst from Beincrypto.
Ethereum (ETH) also mirrored this rebound. After briefly plunging to $3,100 (IDR 51.77 million), ETH rallied by the weekend close, settling above $3,600 (IDR 60.12 million). Despite a weekly decline of 6.55%, this performance indicates a solid recovery for the altcoin.
A significant catalyst emerged from positive political developments. The United States government shutdown, which had persisted for a full month, finally showed signs of an imminent resolution. This prolonged shutdown had previously furloughed 750,000 federal employees and diminished global market liquidity due to frozen government spending.
Raoul Pal, founder of RealVision, explained that halted fiscal policy had exacerbated market liquidity conditions, with crypto being the most severely impacted sector. “Once the shutdown concludes, we could witness a significant surge in liquidity. This could be the next bullish trigger,” he elaborated.
That prediction proved accurate on Sunday (9/11) when Senator John Thune signaled that a deal to end the shutdown was nearing completion. The comments immediately triggered a swift Bitcoin rally and shifted betting sentiment on the Polymarket platform, where the odds of the shutdown ending were brought forward from November 20 to November 11.
Concurrently, a social media post by President Donald Trump further bolstered the positive momentum. “People who are against tariffs are fools! There will be a minimum $2,000 dividend per person (excluding high-income earners)!” Trump wrote.
This statement immediately sent ripples through the market, sparking speculation that these “dividend” funds could flow into stocks or crypto assets. Within mere hours, Bitcoin’s price surged from $103,000 (IDR 1.72 billion) to above $105,000 (IDR 1.75 billion).
This Week’s Focus: Politics and The Fed
The market now eagerly awaits the outcome of a procedural vote in Congress on Tuesday (11/11), which will determine the fate of the shutdown. With most United States economic data delayed due to the government closure, investors will shift their focus towards speeches by Federal Reserve (The Fed) officials.
Among the notable figures scheduled to speak this week are Mary Daly, Alberto Musalem, John Williams, Anna Paulson, Raphael Bostic, Chris Waller, Stephen Miran, and Susan Collins. The content of their statements is poised to significantly influence Bitcoin’s short-term volatility.
The crypto market is now entering a crucial phase where American political factors and monetary policy are once again the primary drivers. With volatility remaining elevated, traders appear unable to rest easy.
Disclaimer: This article is presented for informational purposes regarding developments in the crypto market. It does not constitute an invitation or investment recommendation. Digital assets carry high risks; ensure you understand these risks before investing.
Summary
Bitcoin rebounded to stabilize around $106,000 (IDR 1.77 billion) after experiencing significant losses earlier in the week, narrowing its weekly decline. This recovery was largely spurred by news of an imminent end to the United States government shutdown and a social media post from President Donald Trump promising “people’s dividends.” Previously, Bitcoin saw a sharp correction, triggered by “Big Short” rumors and institutional sell-offs, causing it to briefly dip below $100,000. Despite this, the cryptocurrency maintained its long-term bullish structure by holding above its crucial 365-day Moving Average.
The month-long US government shutdown had severely impacted market liquidity, particularly for crypto, but signs of its resolution quickly triggered Bitcoin’s rally. President Trump’s statement about potential $2,000 dividends further fueled positive market sentiment, contributing to Bitcoin’s surge from $103,000 to over $105,000. Investors are now closely watching for a procedural vote on the shutdown resolution and upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials. These key political and monetary factors are expected to significantly influence Bitcoin’s short-term volatility.
