The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has announced a potential decrease in Indonesia’s coal export performance for the current year, projecting a reduction of 20-30 million tons compared to 2024. This adjustment means total coal exports are now forecast to reach approximately 500 million tons in 2025.
Surya Herjuna, Director of Coal Business Development at ESDM’s Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, clarified that this anticipated drop in export volume does not signal a waning demand for Indonesian coal. Instead, he attributed the deceleration primarily to the prevailing global economic slowdown.
Speaking at the Coalindo Coal Conference 2025 on Wednesday (5/11), Surya explained, “The global economy is currently experiencing a downturn, a trend notably observed in key markets like China and India. Therefore, it’s not an issue of our exports being undesirable.” He further highlighted that a rise in China’s domestic coal production has concurrently reduced its import requirements, contributing to the shift.
Despite these challenges in traditional markets, Indonesia’s coal sector is strategically diversifying its export portfolio. A silver lining emerges with the Philippines, a burgeoning market where demand for Indonesian coal is demonstrating a consistent upward trend.
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“Based on recent data, coal exports to the Philippines have significantly increased, now solidifying its position as a crucial pillar for Indonesia’s overall coal exports. This clearly indicates the successful opening of a vital new market beyond our conventional buyers such as China and India,” Surya stated. He further elaborated that the escalating demand from the Philippines is largely driven by its substantial need for energy sources for power generation. Given the Philippines’ archipelagic geography, numerous power plants are essential to supply electricity across its many islands, making Indonesian coal a preferred and reliable option.
Interestingly, even with the projected decline in export volumes, Surya confirmed that global coal prices have remained remarkably stable. He noted that market movements are minimal, typically fluctuating by a mere US$1-2 per ton.
Providing an update on domestic output, Surya revealed that Indonesia’s total coal production had reached 585 million tons by September 2025. However, this figure also represents a 7.47% decrease when compared to the production levels recorded during the same period in 2024.
Summary
Indonesia’s coal exports are projected to decrease by 20-30 million tons in 2025, bringing the total forecast to approximately 500 million tons, compared to 2024. This anticipated drop is primarily attributed to a global economic slowdown, with key markets like China and India experiencing downturns, alongside China’s increased domestic coal production reducing its import needs.
Despite these challenges, Indonesia’s coal sector is diversifying, with the Philippines emerging as a crucial new market demonstrating consistent upward demand for power generation. Interestingly, global coal prices have remained remarkably stable with minimal fluctuations. By September 2025, Indonesia’s total coal production reached 585 million tons, marking a 7.47% decrease from the same period in 2024.
