Rancak Media – JAKARTA — The Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) and Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa exude confidence that the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) could reach the 9,000 level by the close of this year. This ambitious projection naturally sparks a crucial question: is such a target genuinely attainable?
Fundamentally, the optimism from BEI regarding IHSG hitting 9,000 by year-end is not entirely baseless, according to Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas. However, she suggests it’s more accurately described as aspirational rather than a guaranteed outcome.
Liza highlighted on Tuesday (November 4, 2025), “As of early November, the Indonesian economy has demonstrated robust resilience, with inflation well-managed at 2.86% year-on-year. Our manufacturing PMI stands strong at 51.2, outperforming major economies like South Korea, China, Germany, and the UK. Additionally, a substantial trade surplus reaching US$33.5 billion further underscores this strength.”
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She further elaborated that this powerful combination of low inflation, buoyant exports, and sustained growth in production activity forms a critical buffer, safeguarding domestic economic stability amidst the ongoing global slowdown.
While the IHSG’s technical momentum appears positive from a market perspective, Kiwoom Sekuritas offers a more realistic forecast. The firm anticipates the index’s movement will likely remain confined to the 8,600–8,700 range through the end of 2025.
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Liza noted that yesterday’s trading saw foreign investors resume significant activity, recording a net buy of Rp1.03 trillion across all markets. Their focus was notably on key blue-chip stocks such as BBCA, BBRI, TLKM, ASII, and PTRO.
Delving into technical patterns, Liza confirmed that the prominent Cup & Handle, a bullish reversal formation, remains intact. Kiwoom Sekuritas identifies a potential test of the 8,600 area as a more plausible technical target, contrasting with the more ambitious 9,000 IHSG projection.
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The primary drivers expected to propel the IHSG towards the year’s close, Liza explained, include the festive shopping season and increased mobility associated with Christmas and New Year. Government fiscal stimulus aimed at bolstering public purchasing power, along with inflation expectations consistently within Bank Indonesia’s targets, are also crucial factors.
“We must also consider the MSCI index rebalancing this November,” she added, posing the question, “Will big-cap stocks emerging from this rebalancing become the next index movers?” However, she cautioned that rising valuations in certain sectors, a deceleration in profit growth, and the continued uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy direction present limiting risks.
Overall, Liza affirmed that the IHSG still has a strong chance of concluding the year on a positive note, buoyed by sustained foreign capital inflows and resilient economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, she suggested that the 9,000 target appears to be more psychological in nature.
Kiwoom Research’s year-end target, Liza clarified, firmly remains within the 8,600 area. This target carries a positive bias towards early 2026, contingent upon the stability of both global and domestic factors.
Challenging the more optimistic view, Liza pondered, “If we push for a 9,000 target, is it reasonable to expect the IHSG to deliver an approximate 9% return by year-end, and what specific catalysts would drive such a surge?”
This consideration takes into account numerous persistent uncertainties, such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Liza also advised investors to closely monitor Indonesia’s third-quarter 2025 economic growth figures, which are slated for release tomorrow.
Liza concluded, “Should the government express dissatisfaction with the economic growth results, they may well utilize the remaining months of 2025 to intensify government and consumer spending.”
Disclaimer: This news article is not intended as an invitation to buy or sell stocks. Investment decisions rest entirely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa express confidence that the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) could reach 9,000 by year-end. This optimism is underpinned by Indonesia’s robust economic fundamentals, including low inflation, a strong manufacturing PMI, and a substantial trade surplus, which provide domestic stability. Foreign investors have also shown significant net buying activity in key blue-chip stocks.
However, Kiwoom Sekuritas views this target as aspirational, forecasting a more realistic year-end range of 8,600–8,700, with 8,600 as a plausible technical target. While factors like the festive season and government stimulus could propel the index, risks such as rising valuations, decelerating profit growth, and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty persist. Kiwoom Research maintains its year-end target firmly around the 8,600 area, suggesting the 9,000 target is more psychological.
