The Indonesian stock market commenced trading on Monday, November 3rd, with a robust performance, opening in the green zone at a significant 8,246 level. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) quickly demonstrated its upward momentum, registering an impressive 1.02 percent gain, or 83.1 basis points, by 09:14 AM Western Indonesian Time (WIB), holding firm at 8,246.
This positive sentiment was underscored by encouraging market activity. Data from RTI Business revealed a substantial trading volume of 3.127 billion shares, with transaction values soaring to Rp 2.306 trillion. The market’s dynamism was further reflected in 287,000 recorded transactions. During the initial trading session, a clear majority of stocks saw gains, with 301 shares advancing, while 234 shares experienced a decline, and 156 remained stagnant.
Providing expert insight, Imam Gunadi, an Equity Analyst at IPOT, highlighted the Jakarta Composite Index’s potential for dynamic movement throughout the day, driven primarily by upcoming domestic economic data releases. From a technical standpoint, an optimistic scenario projects the IHSG reaching an upper bound of 8,354. This outlook hinges on economic growth and inflation data demonstrating strong fundamental stability, thereby sustaining positive investor perceptions regarding the national economy’s resilience.
Conversely, Gunadi cautioned about a worst-case scenario where the IHSG could retest the 7,959 level. This downside risk intensifies if economic growth figures reveal a sharper slowdown than market expectations, or if external pressures escalate, such as shifts in global monetary policy or increased volatility in commodity markets. This analysis was conveyed in a statement received by JawaPos.com on Monday, November 3rd.
Global Pressures Shadow Asian Financial Markets, IHSG Faces Potential for Weakening Consolidation
Looking ahead, Imam anticipates that market attention for the week spanning November 3rd to 7th, 2025, will be sharply focused on a series of critical domestic economic data releases. These include the eagerly awaited third-quarter (Q3) 2025 Indonesian economic growth figures, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), and the inflation data for October 2025.
Bloomberg consensus forecasts suggest Indonesia’s economic growth will hover around 4.8 percent, potentially indicating a moderation compared to the previous quarter. Further reinforcing this view, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has hinted that the economic performance for Q3 2025 might be slightly lower than Q2 2025, attributed to a slowdown in domestic activity coupled with persistent external pressures.
Meanwhile, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is slated to release inflation data early this week. The prevailing consensus expects annual inflation to gently decline to 2.59% (year-on-year) from 2.65% (year-on-year) recorded in September, signaling a relatively stable price environment.
IHSG Plunges to 7,944, Purbaya’s Calm Response: “If Stock Market Players See the Index Constantly Rise, They Lose”
In light of these diverse market sentiments, PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) has unveiled its strategic trading recommendations for the week, extending through Friday, November 7th, 2025. Their insights include three promising stocks and one bond, offering valuable guidance for investors.
- Buy on Pullback: KLBF (Kalbe Farma) – Entry: 1235-1255, Target Price: 1345, Stop Loss: 1215. Kalbe Farma (KLBF) has demonstrated a robust performance through Q3 2025, solidifying its standing as a resilient defensive stock amidst potential national economic deceleration. The company reported impressive sales of Rp 25.98 trillion, marking a 7.22% year-on-year (YoY) growth. Furthermore, net profit surged by 10.97% YoY to Rp 2.63 trillion, a clear testament to its sustained operational efficiency and enhanced margins despite prevailing production cost pressures.
- Buy: JPFA (Japfa Comfeed Indonesia) – Entry: 1510, Target Price: 2730, Stop Loss: 2430. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA) has delivered a strong performance over the first nine months of 2025, with net profit reaching Rp 2.4 trillion. This represents a substantial 15.1% YoY increase and comfortably surpasses consensus estimates, achieving 75% of its full-year target, well above its five-year historical average of 68%. This remarkable achievement was primarily fueled by a significant Q3 2025 profit surge of Rp 1.2 trillion, an astounding 90.6% YoY rise, driven by a strong recovery in broiler and Day-Old Chick (DOC) prices, which significantly boosted margins.
- Buy: TAPG (Triputra Agro Persada) – Entry: 1880, Target: 2000, Stop Loss: 1825. Amidst the potential for decelerated economic growth, Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG) stands out with its robust performance through Q3 2025. The company recorded revenues of Rp 8.20 trillion, demonstrating a strong 31.48% YoY growth from Rp 6.24 trillion in the equivalent period last year. As the year draws to a close, palm oil (CPO) demand is anticipated to experience a significant surge, propelled by increased needs from the food and beverage industry in anticipation of the Christmas and New Year festive season, alongside heightened demand from the energy sector due to expanded domestic biodiesel program allocations.
- Buy: Bonds RF0100, FR0091, and FR0059. The Federal Reserve’s decision to halt its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy serves as a significant positive catalyst for global bond markets, including Indonesia’s. This strategic move signals an easing of liquidity conditions and hints at a potential shift in monetary policy towards a more accommodative stance. With the conclusion of the Fed’s balance sheet tightening, pressure on global yields is expected to subside, creating room for a reduction in long-term interest rates and encouraging stronger capital inflows into emerging markets.
