JAKARTA — BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has maintained its Buy rating for state-owned tin producer PT Timah Tbk. (TINS), setting a price target of Rp4,500 per share. The outlook is driven by a projected turnaround in the company’s financial performance throughout 2026.
In their latest research report, BRI Danareksa analysts Andhika Audrey and Naura Reyhan Muchlis raised their 2026 net profit estimate for TINS by 13.4% to Rp3.4 trillion. This upward revision follows a stellar first-quarter performance that exceeded market expectations.
During the first three months of 2026, the company posted a net profit of Rp1.5 trillion, successfully capturing approximately 44.6% of its revised annual earnings target. “The stronger-than-expected net profit in Q1/2026 confirms our thesis regarding a financial inflection point for the company throughout 2026,” the analysts stated on Monday (1/6/2026).
The robust start to the year was primarily fueled by strong selling prices for pure tin, which averaged US$49,200 per ton, alongside a total sales volume of 6.0 kilotons (kt). Furthermore, TINS demonstrated significant margin expansion, with a gross margin of 38.6%, an EBITDA margin of 37.2%, and a net margin reaching 27.5%.
While BRI Danareksa has conservatively trimmed its annual sales volume projection to 25 kt, the firm simultaneously increased its average selling price (ASP) forecast for TINS to US$50,000 per ton, up from the previous estimate of US$40,000.
These adjustments account for potential regulatory risks, specifically the transition to new export rules and the conclusion of the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) relaxation in late March 2026. Given the potential for these factors to hinder production-to-sales conversion, the analysts have lowered the 2027 net profit projection by 8.7% to Rp3.5 trillion.
Looking ahead, potential revisions to royalty rates remain the primary risk to TINS’s stock performance. The analysts noted that any increase in royalty expenses could limit the stock’s upside potential. “We have not yet factored the proposed royalty revisions into our base case, but we view them as a key downside risk, as higher royalty burdens could materially erode cash margins and dampen TINS’s valuation growth in the short term,” the report explained.
Despite these uncertainties, BRI Danareksa maintains its Buy recommendation with a target price of Rp4,500, based on a 10.0x price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for 2026. However, sensitivity analysis suggests that if higher royalty rates are implemented, the company’s net profit could fall between Rp1.46 trillion and Rp2.50 trillion, which could downwardly adjust the price target to a range of Rp2,000 to Rp3,400 per share.
Beyond the royalty issue, investors are advised to monitor other key risk factors for TINS, including global tin price volatility, shipping disruptions linked to RKAB permits, and rising cash costs.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. The publisher is not liable for any financial losses or gains resulting from investment decisions made based on this information.
Summary
BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has maintained a “Buy” rating for PT Timah Tbk. (TINS) with a price target of Rp4,500, following a strong first quarter in 2026. The company reported a net profit of Rp1.5 trillion, supported by high average selling prices of US$49,200 per ton and healthy profit margins. Consequently, analysts have raised their 2026 full-year net profit projection to Rp3.4 trillion.
Despite the positive outlook, the firm identified potential regulatory risks, including future royalty rate hikes and export rule transitions, which could impact future earnings and valuations. Investors are advised to closely monitor these policy developments, alongside global tin price volatility and production permit challenges. Should higher royalty rates be implemented, the company’s price target may face downward pressure to a range of Rp2,000 to Rp3,400 per share.
