JAKARTA – Indonesian automotive stocks, including industry giants such as PT Astra International Tbk. (ASII) and PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk. (IMAS), maintained a strong presence in the green zone throughout 2025. This impressive performance raises a pertinent question: what lies ahead for these crucial equities in 2026?
According to data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI), several automotive-related issuers have indeed seen dazzling gains. As of Friday, December 5, 2025, ASII’s share price had surged an impressive 36.73% year-to-date (ytd) to Rp6,700 per share. Similarly, PT Astra Otoparts Tbk. (AUTO) recorded a 20% ytd increase, reaching Rp2,760 per share, while PT Dharma Polimetal Tbk. (DRMA) climbed 15.22% ytd to Rp1,060. Leading the pack, IMAS shares soared by an astounding 50.28% ytd, settling at Rp1,360 per share.
This robust stock market performance presents a striking paradox when contrasted with the sluggish domestic automotive sales observed this year. Data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries (Gaikindo) reveals a significant contraction: wholesale car sales from January to October 2025 plummeted by 10.6% year-on-year (YoY), dropping from 711,064 units in the same period of 2024 to 635,844 units. Retail car sales mirrored this downturn, declining by 9.6% YoY to 660,659 units, compared to 731,113 units recorded in the first ten months of 2024.
Explaining this divergence, Miftahul Khaer, an Equity Research analyst at Kiwoom Sekuritas, noted that the impressive strengthening of automotive stocks this year, despite weak national car sales, is likely driven by non-fundamental sentiments. “Additionally, there’s an expectation of growth in the upcoming period,” Miftah told Bisnis on Friday, December 5, 2025. Major events like the GIIAS 2025 exhibition have also fueled optimism for a potential resurgence in demand. Furthermore, anticipation builds for government incentives aimed at boosting the industry as 2026 approaches. Consequently, while Miftah anticipates a complex outlook for the automotive sector in 2026, he also sees significant upside potential. He emphasizes that “key catalysts for the upcoming period include interest rate cuts, easier credit access, fiscal policy stimulus, and a recovery in consumer purchasing power.”
Adding to the analytical consensus, Muhamad Rudy Setiawan, a Research Analyst at MNC Sekuritas, observed a general decline in four-wheeled vehicle sales this year, contrasting with a stable two-wheeled vehicle market bolstered by strong exports. “We foresee a recovery opportunity in 2026, underpinned by stronger structural growth and Indonesia’s still-low four-wheel penetration rate,” Rudy stated in his research report. Reflecting this positive outlook, MNC Sekuritas maintains an “overweight” position on the automotive sector, forecasting a comprehensive recovery for the four-wheel segment throughout 2026, alongside robust margins from the two-wheel sector. From this perspective, MNC Sekuritas singles out ASII with a “buy” recommendation and a target price of Rp7,000 per share. Rudy highlighted ASII’s appeal: “ASII remains our top pick, supported by its dominant position in both the four-wheel and two-wheel sectors, a comprehensive product lineup, and a robust financing division.” Additionally, MNC Sekuritas recommends AUTO, setting a target price of Rp3,200 per share, citing its solid revenue, resilient cash flow, and attractive high dividend yield.
Further reinforcing the recovery narrative, Christofer Kojongian, an analyst at Sucor Sekuritas, noted in his research that the automotive sector began exhibiting signs of recuperation towards the end of 2025, buoyed by relaxed benchmark interest rate policies. Sucor Sekuritas, therefore, maintains a “buy” recommendation for DRMA, projecting a target price of Rp1,500 per share. The brokerage firm commends DRMA’s agility in adapting to the evolving automotive industry, particularly its expanding presence in Electric Vehicle (EV) components. Christofer elaborated, “Furthermore, its solid balance sheet, characterized by a net cash position, provides ample scope for future acquisitions, poised to accelerate further growth.”
A broader look at analyst sentiment, referencing the latest Bloomberg data, reveals a strong consensus. For ASII, 25 securities firms have issued a “buy” recommendation, while nine recommend “hold.” The 12-month consensus target price for ASII stands at Rp6,906 per share. Regarding DRMA, the latest analyst consensus shows 10 securities firms recommending “buy,” with one “hold” recommendation. Its 12-month target price is set at Rp1,313 per share. Additionally, 11 securities firms have issued “buy” recommendations for AUTO, with its 12-month target price projected at Rp3,123 per share.
Disclaimer: This article is not intended as an invitation to buy or sell shares. Investment decisions rest solely with the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
Indonesian automotive stocks, including ASII, IMAS, AUTO, and DRMA, showed strong year-to-date gains throughout 2025, with IMAS surging over 50%. This performance occurred despite a significant 10-10.6% year-on-year decline in domestic car sales. Analysts attribute this divergence to non-fundamental sentiments, expectations of future growth, major events like GIIAS 2025, and anticipated government incentives for 2026.
Equity analysts from Kiwoom, MNC, and Sucor Sekuritas forecast a recovery for the automotive sector in 2026. This positive outlook is driven by potential interest rate cuts, easier credit access, fiscal stimulus, and an increase in consumer purchasing power. MNC Sekuritas recommends “buy” for ASII and AUTO, while Sucor Sekuritas advises “buy” for DRMA, citing its strong balance sheet and expansion into EV components. Bloomberg data further reinforces a strong consensus for “buy” recommendations across these key automotive players with positive target prices.
