Prospek bebas hambatan saham Jasa Marga (JSMR) jelang Nataru

Rancak Media – , JAKARTA — Shares of state-owned toll road operator PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk. (JSMR) are deemed attractive for medium-term accumulation. The 20% toll tariff discount policy during the Christmas and New Year (Nataru) period is expected to exert only limited pressure on JSMR’s financial performance by year-end.

The government, through the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, has confirmed that a 20% toll tariff discount will be applied across 26 main Trans-Java and Trans-Sumatra toll sections on December 22–23 and December 31. This 20% discount, which is double the previous year’s offer, has naturally shifted market focus towards its potential impact on JSMR’s revenue and overall stock valuation.

Liza Camelia Suryanata, Head of Research at Kiwoom Sekuritas, maintains a positive outlook for JSMR as the fourth quarter approaches, bolstered by the year-end holiday momentum and government travel stimuli. All these factors are anticipated to significantly increase public mobility across the nation’s toll networks.

However, Suryanata estimates that the financial impact might not be overly significant, primarily due to limited public spending capacity and real income that has not yet fully recovered. This suggests that the expected increase in toll traffic will likely be seasonal rather than a structural improvement in demand.

“Overall, JSMR is poised for a moderate recovery by the end of the year, driven chiefly by a seasonal surge in traffic, enhanced cost efficiencies, and the potential monetization of new toll assets,” Liza recently conveyed to Bisnis. She further added that JSMR stock remains compelling for medium-term accumulation, given its relatively inexpensive valuation, despite the ongoing challenge posed by high interest expenses in the short term.

Echoing a similar sentiment, Ekky Topan, an analyst at Infovesta Kapital Advisori, also views JSMR’s prospects as relatively positive. He anticipates the year-end holiday season will significantly boost traffic volumes across various key toll sections. Furthermore, this state-owned stock is considered attractive for collection because its valuation has corrected quite deeply throughout the year, while the company’s core toll business fundamentals are perceived as robust and defensive.

“In addition, the potential realization of tariff adjustments on several new toll sections could further improve margins. Nevertheless, the pressure from high financial costs and ongoing expansion projects remains a significant challenge,” Topan concluded.

Alasan JP Morgan Naikkan Rating Saham Jasa Marga (JSMR)

A significant development for the company came when the US-based investment bank, JP Morgan, upgraded its recommendation for JSMR shares from a previous ‘neutral’ stance to ‘overweight‘.

JP Morgan identified a series of catalysts underpinning its optimistic recommendation. These include JSMR’s significantly discounted valuation, changes in the governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) post-Danantara management, and the prevailing cycle of interest rate reductions.

In its comprehensive report, JSMR’s valuation was highlighted as exceptionally low, interpreted as an overreaction by the market to concerns regarding potential assignments related to the transfer of toll road assets from Waskita Karya under Danantara’s purview. As of November 17, JSMR was trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around seven times, marking its lowest historical level.

“This stock is trading at an all-time low P/E of seven times, and in our view, presents an attractive risk/reward profile,” stated Arnanto Januri and his team of JP Morgan analysts in their research publication. The second crucial factor cited was the impact of improved SOE governance under Danantara, with JP Morgan noting that an increased focus on return on equity (ROE) has led to a significant re-rating across numerous SOE stocks.

Meanwhile, the third catalyst for Jasa Marga is the anticipated downward trend in Bank Indonesia’s benchmark interest rates. JP Morgan projects that the central bank will implement another 25 basis point (bps) cut to the BI Rate in December.

On a recent Thursday, JSMR shares closed down 1.45% at Rp3,410 per share. Year-to-date, the stock of this state-owned toll road operator has also seen a correction of 21.25%.

Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk. – TradingView

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