JAKARTA – The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) is projected to experience significant movement in 2026, influenced by a confluence of global monetary dynamics, rupiah volatility, and the direction of government policy. This broad range of projected movement signals a dynamic investment landscape for the year ahead.
According to MNC Sekuritas, the IHSG is anticipated to reach a bull case level of 9,000 by 2026. Their comprehensive forecast also outlines a base case scenario at 8,350 and a bear case scenario at 7,600, providing a clear spectrum of potential market performance.
Herditya Wicaksana, Head of Research at MNC Sekuritas, clarified that these projections are meticulously crafted from multiple scenarios, underpinned by the crucial assumption that global monetary dynamics will gradually stabilize. This stabilization is expected to create a more favorable environment for market activity.
Related: IHSG Closes Down 0.06% to 8,611, Shares of CUAN, CDIA, and DSSA All in Red
Wicaksana further elaborated during an interview with Bisnis on Wednesday, December 3, 2025, stating, “We anticipate these movements will be significantly influenced by both global and domestic monetary dynamics.” He added that future benchmark interest rate cuts are expected, which would fundamentally bolster stock market activity. This monetary easing is seen as a key catalyst for positive market sentiment.
Related: Purbaya Jests IHSG Could Break 8,650 Today, Wednesday (Dec 3)
Despite the optimistic outlook on interest rate cuts, market participants must remain vigilant regarding the rupiah’s exchange rate. Its inherent volatility is expected to persist, even amidst expectations of rate reductions, posing a significant risk factor that could temper market enthusiasm.
Beyond monetary considerations, the IHSG projection also meticulously incorporates macroeconomic fundamentals. Herditya highlighted the government’s economic growth target of approximately 5.3% as a primary catalyst. Achieving this target is deemed crucial for sustaining robust performance across various sectors for listed companies, thereby underpinning market confidence.
Fiscal risks are equally integrated into these projections, given that several government priority programs necessitate substantial budget allocations. Should fiscal risk management prove suboptimal, it has the potential to significantly burden investment sentiment, impacting overall market stability.
Furthermore, Wicaksana emphasized the future influence of government regulations on the stock market. He noted, “For the stock market itself, we anticipate it will be affected by future government regulations, which could potentially impact the investment climate and subsequently foreign inflows.” This underscores the critical role of policy in attracting international capital.
Related: JP Morgan Predicts IHSG to Hit 10,000 in 2026
Adding to the market’s recent vigor, the IHSG recorded yet another all-time high (ATH) yesterday, Tuesday, December 2, reaching 8,617.04 after closing up 0.80%. This robust performance provides a strong current backdrop for the upcoming projections.
During the trading session, 369 stocks advanced, 278 declined, and 159 remained stagnant. Concurrently, the total market capitalization, or market cap, swelled to an impressive Rp15,842 trillion, reflecting significant market activity and investor confidence.
________
Disclaimer: This news article is not intended as an invitation to buy or sell stocks. Investment decisions are solely at the discretion of the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from readers’ investment decisions.
Summary
MNC Sekuritas memproyeksikan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) akan mencapai level 9.000 pada tahun 2026 dalam skenario bull case, dengan skenario base case di 8.350 dan bear case di 7.600. Proyeksi ini didasarkan pada asumsi stabilisasi bertahap dinamika moneter global dan ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga acuan. Pelonggaran moneter tersebut diharapkan dapat secara fundamental mendukung aktivitas pasar saham.
Meskipun demikian, investor harus mewaspadai volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah yang persisten dan potensi risiko fiskal dari program-program pemerintah. Faktor fundamental makroekonomi, seperti target pertumbuhan ekonomi pemerintah sebesar 5,3% dan regulasi pemerintah di masa mendatang yang memengaruhi aliran dana asing, juga sangat penting. IHSG sendiri baru-baru ini mencatat rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa (ATH) di 8.617,04, menunjukkan latar belakang pasar yang kuat saat ini.
