Bisnis.com, AGAM – Bank Indonesia (BI) has directly engaged with food and horticultural farmers in Agam Regency, West Sumatra, to investigate the root causes behind the low food supply to markets, which led to West Sumatra experiencing a significant 4.52% year-on-year (YoY) inflation in October 2025.
M. Abdul Majid, Head of the Bank Indonesia Representative Office for West Sumatra, stated that commodities predominantly driving West Sumatra’s inflation, both on a monthly (month-to-month/mtm) and annual (YoY) basis, include red chili, shallots, and other essential foodstuffs.
“We have directly visited farmers in various regions, which are central hubs for food and horticulture crops in West Sumatra. These include Solok, Tanah Datar, Pesisir Selatan, and Agam Regencies,” he explained on Thursday (November 6, 2025).
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During these direct observations, BI teams met with farmer groups who voiced concerns over unexpected weather conditions. These adverse changes have caused shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, subsequently impacting crop yields and resulting in minimal supply reaching the markets.
“BI has coordinated with local governments, urging each district and city to conduct field data collection on agricultural areas slated for harvest in the near future. The objective is to provide local authorities with a clear guideline for implementing policies related to augmenting food supplies from outside the region,” Majid clarified.
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With BI’s proactive efforts to directly assess the actual conditions at the farmer level, there is optimism that West Sumatra’s inflation can be brought under control by the close of 2025. “This step is crucial, especially considering the upcoming Christmas and New Year (Nataru) holiday season, which will inevitably lead to an increase in food demand. Therefore, ensuring stable supply and availability in the market is paramount,” he emphasized.
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Adding to these insights, Lukman Hakim, Head of the Regional Economic and Financial Policy Implementation Team (KEKDA) at BI West Sumatra, shared findings from direct monitoring of agricultural areas in Nagari/Canduang Koto Laweh Village, Canduang District, Agam Regency. Farmers there consistently reported issues related to unpredictable weather patterns.
Regarding rice cultivation specifically in the Canduang area, approximately 15 days remain until the average paddy fields enter their harvest season. Remarkably, the rice crops are in good condition, primarily because farmers in Agam have widely adopted a “cheap basic paddy field system,” which leverages straw to enrich the soil, reducing reliance on chemical fertilizers.
However, the situation for shallots is more challenging. Lukman noted a significant shift in shallot planting and harvesting seasons. Typically, the end of the year brings the rainy season, but instead, the region has experienced an unseasonal dry spell. “Usually, shallots are harvested every two months. But due to the prolonged hot conditions, which threaten the viability of the shallot crops, farmers have had to delay planting, causing harvest times to deviate significantly from their original plans,” he explained.
The instability and unpredictability of shallot harvests in West Sumatra, compounded by crop failures in Java’s agricultural regions, have exacerbated the problem, leading to critical shortages and supply issues for shallots in several markets across West Sumatra. “These conditions have driven up shallot prices in the market, a trend farmers report has been ongoing since May 2025,” he stated.
For red chili cultivation, farmers face similar adversities. Intense heat combined with strong winds, locally known as ‘angin selembubu,’ has caused many red chili plants to wilt. The strong winds dislodge or even uproot the plants, damaging their root systems. “We observed that the conditions and plights faced by farmers in Canduang are indeed severely impacted by climate change,” Lukman asserted.
Lukman confirmed that these critical findings from the farmer level would be documented and thoroughly discussed with the Head of BI West Sumatra Representative Office and local governments. “Therefore, the issue is not about seed quality or fertilizer availability, but rather about unusual weather patterns at the end of the year, which have profoundly affected horticultural crops,” he concluded.
In a gesture of support to boost farmer optimism, BI West Sumatra also provided a motor-rickshaw to a farmer group. Through this initiative, BI aims to facilitate smoother transportation of harvested produce to the markets for sale.
M. Ridha, Chairman of the Marapi Millenial Farmer Group in Nagari Canduang Koto Laweh, confirmed that the challenging conditions faced by farmers are not isolated to Canduang but are widespread across nearly all regions of West Sumatra. He validated this after communicating with various farmers in other districts and cities throughout West Sumatra, all of whom reported significant losses due to the abnormal weather.
“Farmers in Alahan Panjang, a major shallot production center, are experiencing the same issues. If the weather is excessively hot, the quality of shallot bulbs diminishes, with no ‘super’ sized produce available. This results in reduced harvest tonnage, despite requiring more labor and incurring higher costs under hot weather conditions,” he elaborated.
Ridha highlighted that for shallot crops, the primary threats are either excessively hot or dry weather. Conversely, if rainfall becomes too frequent, it also jeopardizes the shallot plants, potentially leading to crop failure. According to him, optimal shallot yields are achieved when weather conditions involve moderate rainfall and dry periods that are not excessively prolonged.
“Regarding the dry weather, we have undertaken independent irrigation efforts, watering once every three days. However, the current problem is that sources of water for irrigation are quite distant. We are truly distressed by these conditions,” he lamented.
Normal weather patterns in 2025 were observed only from January to April. During the early part of the year, the weather appeared stable, alternating between rain and sunshine. However, from May 2025 until the present, the weather has been highly erratic, predominantly characterized by intense heat. “We believe this year’s weather has been truly unexpected and beyond our calculations,” Ridha commented.
Given these challenging circumstances, shallot prices at the farmer level have been relatively good, ranging from IDR 22,000 to IDR 25,000 per kilogram for small and medium-sized bulbs. However, farmers have been unable to produce “super” sized shallots, as the hot weather has hindered optimal bulb growth.
Concurrently, Virgi Astuty, Coordinator of the Canduang Agricultural Extension Center (BPP) under the Agam Regency Agriculture Office, confirmed that the Agam Regency Government has been actively addressing the challenges faced by farmers. This includes successful measures to preserve rice productivity despite prolonged hot weather conditions.
“Fortunately, Canduang farmers have extensively adopted the ‘cheap basic paddy field system,’ which effectively utilizes straw to enrich soil fertility without heavy reliance on chemical fertilizers. This system has proven highly beneficial in maintaining optimal rice production,” she stated.
Virgi emphasized that regarding rice cultivation, the Agam Regency Government is dedicated to providing and improving infrastructure such as irrigation channels. Numerous agricultural irrigation systems have been built and repaired by the local government to ensure sufficient water supply for paddy fields.
She acknowledged that due to the heat-affected land conditions, some farmers have diversified their land use, converting former rice fields to cultivate shallots, red chilies, and even sweet potatoes. This adaptive strategy ensures that the available land remains productive. “It’s a common practice for land use to shift, adapting to prevailing weather conditions. For instance, with the current hot weather, some farmers are planting red chilies and have just started cultivating shallots, hoping for the rainy season to commence in the Agam region by the end of the year,” Virgi concluded.
Summary
Bank Indonesia (BI) Representative Office for West Sumatra is actively investigating the causes of the region’s 4.52% year-on-year inflation in October 2025, primarily driven by a low supply of red chili and shallots. Direct visits to farmers in key production centers revealed that unexpected and erratic weather patterns, characterized by intense heat and strong winds since May 2025, have severely impacted planting and harvesting seasons. These adverse conditions have led to significantly reduced crop yields and minimal market supply for horticultural products.
Farmers reported severe challenges, including delayed shallot planting, poor bulb quality, and wilting red chili plants, resulting in widespread losses. While rice cultivation in certain areas like Canduang has maintained productivity through adaptive farming methods and improved irrigation, BI is coordinating with local governments to map future harvest areas. These proactive measures aim to stabilize food supplies and control inflation, especially ahead of the Christmas and New Year holiday season.
