Rancak Media – , JAKARTA – PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk. (MEDC) has released its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025. Over the first nine months of 2025, the Panigoro family-owned oil and gas (O&G) issuer recorded a net profit of US$85.65 million, equivalent to approximately Rp1.43 trillion (at an exchange rate of Rp16,725 per US dollar).
Medco’s net profit for the period saw a significant reduction of 68.66% compared to the US$273.27 million reported in January-September 2024. This decline aligns with a 1.54% drop in revenue from contracts with customers, which decreased from US$1.75 billion to US$1.72 billion.
A closer examination reveals that revenue from oil and gas sales contracts, which contributed a substantial 92.97% to the total contract revenue, experienced a marginal year-on-year (YoY) contraction of 0.76%, moving from US$1.61 billion to US$1.59 billion.
Research published by Ciptadana Sekuritas on November 1, 2025, elaborated on the current challenges confronting oil and gas issuers: a cooling global oil price environment. Brent crude oil prices dipped below US$70 per barrel in Q3 2025, driven by sluggish global demand. This challenging period is projected to extend into 2026.
Despite the weakening oil prices, Ciptadana Sekuritas maintains a positive outlook for Medco, citing its robust growth strategy. The acquisition of a 24% stake in the Corridor Block from Repsol is anticipated to boost production to approximately 180 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboepd) and add around US$70 million to its EBITDA. “We maintain our Buy recommendation for MEDC shares with a target price of Rp1,800, reflecting a 2026 projected EV/EBITDA valuation of 4.6 times, consistent with its five-year historical average,” stated the research, quoted on Tuesday (November 4, 2025).
Nevertheless, the Ciptadana research also highlighted short-term risks stemming from oil price fluctuations and the potential financial impact from its subsidiary, PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk. (AMMN).
Meanwhile, Panin Sekuritas analyst Andhika Audrey noted positive indicators within Medco’s performance, even amid the top-line decline attributed to cooling global oil prices. Audrey pointed out that Medco’s cumulative EBITDA experienced a more moderate decline compared to the average global oil price drop, with EBITDA at US$946 million (a 3.4% YoY correction) against an average global oil price of US$68 per barrel (a 15% YoY decrease) during the same period.
Although Medco’s net profit decreased by 68% YoY over the first nine months of 2025, this figure remained below the estimates from both Panin Sekuritas and the broader consensus. Andhika elaborated that for future growth, Medco’s management will rely on the development of the Corridor-Sakakemang gas hub, the completion of Senoro phase 2A, and West Kalabau-1, all targeted to commence operations in 2026 or potentially sooner.
Regarding commodity price fluctuations, Panin Sekuritas forecasts that global oil prices will remain moderate until 2026, ranging between US$65-US$75 per barrel, with gas prices around US$6-US$7 per million British thermal unit (mmbtu). “In line with this, we recommend a Buy for MEDC with a maintained target price of Rp1,600, driven by faster-than-target oil and gas production, specifically an earlier onstream for the Senoro phase 2A project, and the recovery of AMMN’s contribution after its concentrate export permit is issued in Q4 2025 and the smelter achieves stable operations,” Andhika stated in his research published on November 3, 2025.
From a risk perspective, Medco’s projected EBITDA for 2026 is anticipated to be more moderate, primarily triggered by lower oil and gas prices and integration costs associated with new projects.
Furthermore, according to Bloomberg Terminal, 19 out of 20 analysts (95%) recommend a Buy for MEDC, with an average target price of Rp1,682. This reflects a potential return of 25.6% over the next 12 months from a price of Rp1,340.
During the first trading session on Tuesday (November 4), MEDC’s share price strengthened by 2.24% to Rp1,370. This current price level represents a 24.55% growth year-to-date.
Disclaimer: This news is not intended to encourage buying or selling shares. Investment decisions are solely at the discretion of the reader. Bisnis.com is not responsible for any losses or gains arising from the reader’s investment decisions.
Summary
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk. (MEDC) reported a net profit of US$85.65 million for the first nine months of 2025, marking a significant 68.66% decrease year-on-year, alongside a 1.54% drop in revenue. This decline is largely attributed to a cooling global oil price environment, with Brent crude falling below US$70 per barrel in Q3 2025 due to sluggish demand, a trend projected to continue into 2026.
Despite the profit downturn, Ciptadana Sekuritas and Panin Sekuritas both maintain a “Buy” recommendation for MEDC, setting target prices of Rp1,800 and Rp1,600 respectively. Analysts are positive due to Medco’s growth strategy, including the Corridor Block acquisition and upcoming project developments expected to boost production and EBITDA. The broader analyst consensus, with 95% recommending “Buy,” points to an average target price of Rp1,682, indicating a potential 25.6% return.
