Rancak Media — Probolinggo City’s annual inflation rate for October 2025, which registered at 2.83%, remains well within a controlled range, according to officials. This figure indicates a stable economic environment despite month-to-month fluctuations.
Febrina, Head of Bank Indonesia (BI) Malang Representative Office, stated that based on data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Probolinggo City’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a monthly inflation of 0.43% (month-to-month/mtm) in October 2025. This marks an increase from the 0.28% (mtm) recorded in September, highlighting a slight uptick in price pressures.
“On an annual basis, Probolinggo City recorded an inflation rate of 2.83% (year-on-year/yoy), which is still comfortably within the target range of 2.5% + 1%,” Febrina affirmed on Tuesday (4/11/2025). This reassuring statement underlines the effectiveness of current economic policies in managing price stability.
The upward movement in CPI inflation during October 2025 was primarily driven by price increases within the Personal Care and Other Services group, contributing 0.43% (mtm) to the overall inflation. Diving deeper into specific commodities, significant contributors included jewelry gold with an impact of 0.44%, followed by chicken eggs at 0.07%, red chili at 0.04%, and machine-rolled cigarettes at 0.02% (mtm).
The persistent rise in jewelry gold prices was attributed to the continued global appreciation of gold throughout October 2025. Meanwhile, the increase in chicken egg prices was influenced by robust consumer demand coupled with elevated feed costs, particularly for corn. Red chili prices saw an uptick due to a decline in production precisely when consumer demand was on the rise.
However, the overall inflation was significantly mitigated by price decreases in several other key commodities. Bird’s eye chili, shallots, scad/Bengal scad, and skipjack tuna/ambu-ambu fish each contributed to deflation, with impacts of -0.03%, -0.01%, -0.01%, and -0.01% (mtm), respectively. These price reductions played a crucial role in preventing a higher overall inflation rate.
The drop in prices for horticultural commodities like bird’s eye chili and shallots was largely fueled by an increase in supply, coinciding with ongoing harvests and well-maintained stock levels. “Despite an increase from the previous month, Probolinggo City’s inflation pressure in October 2025 remains controlled within the target range,” Febrina concluded, acknowledging both the slight rise and the underlying stability.
This managed inflation rate is strongly supported by the robust coordination within the Regional Inflation Control Teams (TPID). Their collaborative efforts were evident in various initiatives throughout October 2025, including participation in the Capacity Building and Study Tour of East Java TPID in Makassar from October 30-31, 2025, and the opening of “Siaga Coffee Shop” and “Inflation Warung.” Additional measures encompassed the weekly distribution of food balance infographics, continuous price and stock monitoring of staple foods, and routine weekly coordination meetings on inflation control with the Ministry of Home Affairs (Kemendagri).
Joko Budi Santoso, an economist from the Faculty of Economics and Business at Brawijaya University, observed that the consistent influence of gold commodities on Probolinggo’s inflation over recent months underscores a continued public preference for gold as an investment. This sustained interest drives demand and keeps gold prices elevated. He noted that this trend is further amplified by the continuous upward trajectory of international gold prices.
Conversely, Joko highlighted that inflation stemming from volatile foods has been effectively managed. This success is attributed to various innovative breakthroughs in ensuring adequate supply and distribution, thereby keeping prices affordable for the community. He emphasized that a critical factor in the success of local governments in controlling inflation lies in strengthening information systems for prices, production, and available stock. This robust data foundation enables swift and precise policy-making, especially in proactively addressing potential spikes in strategic food commodity prices.
Furthermore, Joko suggested that sharing experiences among regions is vital for enhancing and broadening understanding, fostering continuous innovation in inflation control policies. This collaborative approach ensures that best practices and effective strategies can be adopted more widely, leading to more resilient local economies.
Summary
Probolinggo City mencatat tingkat inflasi tahunan sebesar 2.83% (year-on-year) pada Oktober 2025, yang tetap terkendali dan berada dalam kisaran target. Inflasi bulanan pada periode yang sama mencapai 0.43% (month-to-month), terutama didorong oleh kenaikan harga emas perhiasan, telur ayam, dan cabai merah. Namun, penurunan harga komoditas seperti cabai rawit dan bawang merah membantu meredam tekanan inflasi secara keseluruhan, sebagian besar karena peningkatan pasokan.
Tingkat inflasi yang terkendali ini didukung oleh koordinasi yang kuat dari Tim Pengendali Inflasi Daerah (TPID) melalui berbagai upaya pemantauan dan intervensi. Seorang ekonom mengamati bahwa pengaruh emas mencerminkan preferensi investasi masyarakat, sementara inflasi makanan yang volatil berhasil dikelola melalui inovasi dalam pasokan dan distribusi. Ia menekankan pentingnya sistem informasi yang kuat serta berbagi pengalaman antar daerah untuk kebijakan pengendalian inflasi yang efektif.
