Menilik Kans Saham Masuk Global Indeks usai MSCI Ubah Aturan, Siapa Diuntungkan?

MSCI has announced a significant relaxation of its screening methodology concerning stocks experiencing an Extreme Price Increase (EPI). This updated rule brings renewed optimism for Indonesian equities, which have often faced hurdles due to the EPI filter in their pursuit of inclusion in the prestigious MSCI Global Standard Index. The change signals a more nuanced approach from the global index provider, potentially opening doors for high-performing Indonesian companies.

The EPI methodology is a rigorous screening process employed by MSCI for stocks that exhibit exceptionally sharp price surges over a defined period. MSCI implements this filter to ascertain whether such rapid price appreciation genuinely reflects healthy price formation and is accessible to a broad base of global investors. Historically, an extreme price increase could raise red flags about market integrity or potential manipulation, prompting automatic exclusion from consideration for key indices.

However, this recent easing of the EPI rules does not imply an automatic entry for all stocks that have experienced extreme price increases into the MSCI Global Standard Index. These equities must still satisfy a comprehensive set of other stringent requirements. These include adhering to specific market capitalization thresholds, maintaining adequate free float levels, demonstrating robust liquidity, and meeting various other fundamental investability criteria. Once these prerequisites are met, the EPI status will no longer serve as an automatic barrier, allowing these stocks to qualify as potential constituents for MSCI indices.

Among the most impactful updates, the changes concerning the Foreign Inclusion Factor (FIF) stand out prominently. The FIF is a crucial metric that reflects the proportion of a company’s shares genuinely available for purchase by foreign investors. This factor is essential for determining a stock’s weight and eligibility within international benchmarks.

Previously, any stock flagged with an EPI and possessing a FIF of 0.75 or higher would be automatically screened out and thus rendered ineligible for consideration in the MSCI Global Standard Index. Under the newly revised methodology, MSCI will no longer automatically disqualify EPI-affected stocks solely based on a FIF of 0.75 or greater. This adjustment significantly broadens the potential pool of eligible stocks.

Consequently, these previously excluded stocks now have a tangible opportunity to gain entry into the MSCI Global Standard Index, provided they meet all the other aforementioned eligibility criteria. This revised approach acknowledges that stocks with a substantial public float are less susceptible to price distortions from concentrated ownership or limited trading, making their price movements potentially more reflective of fundamental value.

Conversely, stocks that are affected by EPI and have a FIF below 0.75 will continue to receive special scrutiny and treatment. For instance, a stock in this category that is not yet a constituent of the MSCI Investable Market Index (IMI) will not automatically qualify for direct inclusion in the MSCI Standard Index. This cautious stance underscores MSCI’s commitment to maintaining the quality and integrity of its indices, particularly for less freely traded securities.

Furthermore, constituents of the MSCI Small Cap Indexes that experience an EPI will undergo a detailed evaluation based on their market capitalization relative to the Market Size-Segment Cutoffs for the Standard Index. This rigorous assessment aims to ensure that companies are appropriately classified based on their true market standing and investability.

Specifically, stocks with a full market capitalization falling below 1.8 times the Standard Index‘s market size-segment cutoff, or with a free float-adjusted market capitalization less than 1.8 times half of the Standard Index‘s market size-segment cutoff, will retain their status as Small Cap constituents. This threshold-based evaluation provides clear guidelines for index classification.

Conversely, stocks that achieve a full market capitalization of at least 1.8 times the Standard Index‘s market size-segment cutoff, and a free float-adjusted market capitalization of at least 1.8 times half of the Standard Index‘s market size-segment cutoff, will not be added to the Standard Index. Instead, these stocks will be removed from the Small Cap Index but will remain within the broader market investable universe. MSCI will then re-evaluate their eligibility for inclusion in the Standard Index during subsequent Index Reviews. “However, such securities will remain in the market investable universe and will be re-evaluated for inclusion in the Standard Index at the next Index Review,” MSCI stated in its official announcement, emphasizing its comprehensive review process.

No Immediate Euphoria for Indonesian Equities

These new EPI rules are slated for implementation during the August 2026 Index Review. However, the immediate impact on Indonesian equities is not expected to be substantial. This is primarily because MSCI has temporarily frozen the rebalancing process for Indonesian stocks during this particular period, tempering any immediate upside potential.

Nafan Aji Gusta, a Senior Technical Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, views the modification of the EPI methodology as a positive development for the Indonesian market in the long run. Nevertheless, he anticipates that its short-term effects will likely be limited due to prevailing market conditions and MSCI’s specific considerations for Indonesia.

According to Nafan, stocks with a FIF of 0.75 or higher are no longer automatically blocked by the EPI filter. These stocks now possess a renewed opportunity to enter the MSCI Global Standard Index, provided they meet all other essential criteria, including sufficient market capitalization, robust liquidity, and overall investability. This change marks a significant shift in how MSCI assesses these securities.

In essence, MSCI is now adopting a more proportionate treatment for stocks characterized by a large free float. Such equities are generally perceived as less susceptible to extreme price increases driven by ownership distortions, making their market movements more reliable. This aligns with MSCI’s objective of reflecting genuinely liquid and accessible market segments.

Despite these positive changes, Nafan believes that the likelihood of a significant increase in Indonesian equities being added to the MSCI Global Standard Index remains modest in the immediate future. The primary impediment is no longer solely the EPI rule, but rather MSCI’s ongoing concerns regarding the fundamental structure of the Indonesian market.

These structural issues encompass critical aspects such as the concentration of share ownership, the transparency and accuracy of free float calculations, and the effective implementation of ongoing capital market reforms. “Until these issues are fully addressed, the opportunities for adding Indonesian stocks to the MSCI Global Standard Index will remain relatively constrained, even with the relaxed EPI hurdle,” Nafan explained to Katadata on Tuesday, July 21, 2026.

Therefore, the revised EPI methodology should be viewed primarily as the removal of a technical barrier for Indonesian equities. It is not, however, a guarantee that a greater number of domestic stocks will swiftly gain entry into the MSCI Global Standard Index. The broader systemic issues of market quality and transparency remain central to MSCI’s evaluation.

Blue-Chip Stocks Poised for Greater Gains from EPI Relaxation

Among the ranks of large-capitalization issuers, Nafan identifies blue-chip stocks with a high proportion of public ownership, or substantial free float, coupled with strong trading liquidity, as the most likely beneficiaries of these rule changes. These companies typically exhibit characteristics that align well with MSCI’s investability standards.

Nafan highlighted that stocks such as PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA), PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI), and PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) historically possess relatively high free float levels and comfortably meet the relevant FIF thresholds. The newfound clarity surrounding the EPI rules can significantly bolster the position of these prominent banking stocks as attractive destinations for passive foreign funds during future index rebalancing events.

Furthermore, companies like PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (TLKM), PT Astra International Tbk (ASII), and PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) are also expected to gain greater certainty regarding their index eligibility. With their broad public ownership structures, price increases driven by robust company fundamentals should no longer be automatically hindered by MSCI’s EPI filter, fostering more predictable inclusion prospects.

Despite the positive sentiment, Imam Gunadi, an Equity Analyst at Indo Premier Sekuritas, cautions that while the relaxation of EPI rules is a positive development for the Indonesian capital market, enhancing the prospects of large-capitalization stocks with high FIF to enter the MSCI Global Standard Index by removing the automatic disqualification for extreme price surges, it is not the sole determinant.

According to Imam, this change alone does not guarantee inclusion. “The final decision remains contingent upon the fulfillment of MSCI’s entire methodology and MSCI’s own comprehensive assessment,” he emphasized, underscoring the multi-faceted nature of index eligibility.

This factor becomes particularly crucial given that Indonesia continues to face the threat of a potential downgrade from its current status as an emerging market to a frontier market. Adding to this concern, MSCI has maintained its freeze on the rebalancing of Indonesian equities for the August 2026 review period, signaling ongoing reservations about the market’s underlying structure.

In its MSCI 2026 Market Classification Review, released in June 2026, MSCI reaffirmed Indonesia’s status as an emerging market. However, the institution explicitly stated that it would consider initiating consultations for a potential downgrade if no significant improvements are observed by the MSCI Index Review in November 2026. This sets a critical deadline for Indonesian market reforms.

MSCI’s primary concerns continue to revolve around the transparency of shareholding structures, the accuracy of free float determinations, and persistent allegations of coordinated trading activities within the Indonesian capital market. According to MSCI, these issues directly impact the quality of price formation and the overall investability level of the Indonesian market, making it less attractive to global investors.

Nevertheless, MSCI has acknowledged the ongoing capital market reforms initiated by the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) regulators. These reforms include enhanced disclosure of shareholder data, more detailed classification of investors, the implementation of a High Shareholding Concentration (HSC) framework, and plans to increase the minimum free float requirement to 15%. These steps are seen as constructive efforts to address MSCI’s concerns.

However, for global investors, the effective implementation of these policies is considered far more critical than mere regulatory announcements. Consequently, MSCI will continue to rigorously evaluate the effectiveness and impact of these reforms before making any definitive decisions regarding Indonesia’s market classification during its crucial November 2026 Index Review.

List of Large-Capitalization Stocks on the IDX:

(Source: IDX Data as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026)