JAKARTA — Amidst the persistent pressure on the stock market throughout early 2026, the performance of the state-owned enterprise (SOE) stock index, IDX BUMN20, has demonstrated remarkable resilience compared to broader benchmark indices.
Data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) as of May 4, 2026, reveals that the IDX BUMN20 experienced a year-to-date (YtD) correction of 8.81%. While still in negative territory, this decline is significantly more tempered than the 19.37% YtD drop seen in the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) or the 20.32% contraction in the LQ45 index.
This relative stability is rooted in the strong fundamentals of most state-owned issuers, which posted profit growth in the first quarter of 2026. Out of 18 analyzed SOE issuers, 13 reported year-on-year (YoY) net profit increases.
The energy and mining sectors emerged as primary drivers of this growth. PT Bukit Asam Tbk. (PTBA) recorded a 104.81% YoY surge in net profit, reaching Rp801.79 billion, while Aneka Tambang saw a 59.85% profit jump to Rp3.40 trillion. In the infrastructure sector, PT Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk. (ADHI) rebounded significantly, with profits climbing to Rp154.14 billion from just Rp316.59 million in the first quarter of 2025. PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. (SMGR) also posted strong results, with profit growth of 88.68% to Rp80.34 billion.
However, the heavyweights of the banking sector remained the ultimate pillars of support. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) posted a net profit of Rp15.49 trillion (up 13.74% YoY), closely followed by Bank Mandiri with Rp15.38 trillion (up 16.57% YoY). Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) and Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) also contributed with growth rates of 5.21% and 22.60%, respectively.
Muhammad Wafi, Head of Research at KISI Sekuritas, views these results as a positive market signal, though he cautions that it may not yet be enough to trigger aggressive investor sentiment. “We need further confirmation in the second and third quarters to see if this growth is sustainable or merely a low-base effect, especially as sectors like cement and construction remain under pressure,” Wafi stated on Tuesday (May 5, 2026).
According to Wafi, valuations for major state-owned banks like BBRI, BMRI, and BBNI remain fair or relatively cheap following recent corrections. Conversely, for issuers that have already experienced a price rebound, current valuations may have already “priced in” their performance. Investors are advised to balance growth and stability, focusing on companies with clear earnings visibility, healthy balance sheets, and identifiable catalysts.
“Prioritize issuers with strong earnings visibility and robust balance sheets. Practically, investors should consider being overweight in major banks and commodity players with strong cash flows, while remaining selective in other sectors,” he added.
Despite these successes, not all SOEs shared the same positive trajectory. Semen Baturaja (SMBR) suffered the sharpest profit decline at 64.62% YoY, followed by Bank Raya Indonesia (AGRO) at 59.87% YoY. Jasa Marga and PP also reported profit corrections of 16.49% and 15.02%, respectively. This disparity highlights that the resilience of the IDX BUMN20 is not uniform but heavily supported by a handful of dominant players in the banking and commodity sectors.
The appeal of SOE stocks is further bolstered by the potential for substantial dividend yields. The BUMN Research Group at LM FEB UI noted that SOE dividends reached approximately Rp140 trillion in 2025, a significant 72% increase from Rp81.2 trillion in 2023. Associate Director Toto Pranoto attributes this spike to governance transformations overseen by Danantara Indonesia, though he notes that 75% of total SOE profits are still generated by only six major issuers.
Looking ahead, SOE dividend policies are expected to become more flexible. Dony Oskaria, COO of Danantara Indonesia, explained that dividend amounts will be adjusted based on the specific investment needs of each holding company as they finalize their annual work and budget plans (RKAP). Furthermore, Danantara has set an ambitious target for SOE profits to reach Rp350 trillion in 2026, up from the Rp285 trillion realized in 2025. This goal is supported by ongoing consolidation and efficiency efforts, including the plan to streamline the number of entities from 1,000 to 300 to improve operational scale and competitiveness.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks. Investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Bisnis.com is not liable for any losses or gains arising from the use of this information.
Summary
The IDX BUMN20 index has demonstrated significant resilience in early 2026, recording a year-to-date decline of 8.81%, which outperformed the sharper drops seen in the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) and the LQ45 index. This stability is largely attributed to strong first-quarter profit growth among key state-owned enterprises, particularly within the banking, energy, and mining sectors. Major players like Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Bank Mandiri continue to serve as the primary pillars of this performance, maintaining robust earnings despite broader market pressures.
While the overall outlook for SOEs remains positive, experts advise a selective investment approach as growth varies significantly across different companies. Looking forward, the government aims to boost SOE profitability to Rp350 trillion in 2026 through operational consolidation and efficiency improvements. Furthermore, the potential for substantial dividends continues to bolster the appeal of these stocks, supported by ongoing governance reforms overseen by Danantara Indonesia.
