The Minister of Transportation, Dudy Purwagandhi, has projected a substantial 119.5 million people will embark on journeys during the upcoming Christmas 2025 and New Year 2026 (Nataru) holiday season. Of this significant figure, approximately half, or 60.53 million individuals, are anticipated to fully utilize the entire Nataru 2025/2026 period for their travels. Breaking down these projections further, Dudy estimates 38.8 million people will travel specifically for the New Year 2026 holiday, while 20.17 million individuals are projected to travel for Christmas 2025.
Highlighting preferred modes of transport, Minister Purwagandhi, speaking in Central Jakarta on Friday (5/12), stated that private cars are expected to be the most popular choice, accounting for 42.78% of all travelers, or an estimated 51.12 million people. Motorcycles follow as the second most favored option, representing 18.41% of the total projected travelers. This combined private vehicle usage, encompassing both cars and motorcycles, is expected to exceed 61% during Nataru 2025/2026. In stark contrast, public transportation is projected to accommodate only around 12% of the total holiday travelers.
Delving deeper into public transport choices, approximately 8.17% of travelers are predicted to opt for buses, rental cars, or travel services. Meanwhile, air travel is projected to serve 4.27 million passengers, long-distance trains an estimated 3.94 million, ferries approximately 3.75 million, and sea vessels 2.62 million passengers. This comprehensive breakdown underscores the diverse travel preferences anticipated for the festive season.
Weather Alert
A significant area of focus for the government is land travel across Java, particularly given that the majority of private vehicle users, especially motorcyclists, are expected to traverse the island. Adding a critical layer of concern, Minister Purwagandhi signaled a potential rise in accident rates, correlating with the worsening weather forecasts issued by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) towards the end of the month. The BMKG’s projections indicate exceptionally high rainfall, exceeding 300 millimeters per second, in certain regions including parts of Banten, western West Java, southern South Sulawesi, and southern Papua. Consequently, Dudy issued a stern reminder to all transportation users and operators to remain vigilant and prioritize weather conditions throughout the Nataru 2025/2026 period.
In terms of regional movement, Dudy reported that approximately 2.9 million vehicles are expected to depart from the DKI Jakarta area during Nataru 2025/2026. A substantial portion, 1.3 million vehicles, are projected to head eastward, destined for the Trans Java Toll Road. Concurrently, an estimated 818,000 vehicles are anticipated to travel westward from Jakarta towards Sumatra, while around 670,000 units will venture southward to Bogor and Sukabumi.
Based on these projections, Dudy identified four key congestion hotspots expected during Nataru 2025/2026: the Bogor-Ciawi-Sukabumi Toll Road, the network of toll roads across Central Java, Merak Port, and Ketapang Port. “We are proactively anticipating increased traffic at locations that are popular tourist destinations during Nataru 2025/2026,” he stated, highlighting these as the points where significant congestion is predicted by the end of the month.
Furthermore, Dudy noted an expected increase in visitor numbers at several ferry ports, specifically in North Sumatra, North Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Maluku, Papua, and the Nusa Tenggara region. He elaborated that these provinces are set to experience high travel volumes during Christmas 2025. While acknowledging that recent floods and landslides in North Sumatra might temper overall movement during Nataru 2025/2026, Dudy affirmed plans to nevertheless prepare for a surge in travel within the province for Christmas 2025, particularly in the renowned Lake Toba area. Lake Toba, a prominent natural wonder, spans seven regencies: Toba, Samosir, Simalungun, Karo, Dairi, Humbang Hasundutan, and North Tapanuli. Despite post-disaster limitations, the Minister concluded, “We project quite high movement around Lake Toba during Nataru 2025/2026. Therefore, we are still anticipating a surge in activity in that area.”
Summary
Menteri Perhubungan Dudy Purwagandhi memproyeksikan 119,5 juta orang akan melakukan perjalanan selama libur Natal 2025 dan Tahun Baru 2026 (Nataru), dengan sekitar 60,53 juta di antaranya memanfaatkan seluruh periode tersebut. Mobil pribadi diprediksi menjadi pilihan utama bagi 42,78% pelancong (51,12 juta orang), diikuti oleh sepeda motor sebesar 18,41%. Secara total, penggunaan kendaraan pribadi (mobil dan motor) diperkirakan melebihi 61%, sementara transportasi umum hanya akan mengakomodasi sekitar 12% dari total pelancong.
Pemerintah menyoroti potensi peningkatan angka kecelakaan, terutama di jalur darat Jawa, akibat prakiraan cuaca buruk dari BMKG, dengan curah hujan tinggi di beberapa wilayah seperti Banten dan Jawa Barat bagian barat. Sebanyak 2,9 juta kendaraan diperkirakan akan meninggalkan DKI Jakarta, mayoritas menuju timur melalui Tol Trans Jawa. Empat titik kemacetan utama diidentifikasi meliputi Tol Bogor-Ciawi-Sukabumi, ruas tol di Jawa Tengah, Pelabuhan Merak, dan Pelabuhan Ketapang. Pergerakan tinggi juga diantisipasi di beberapa pelabuhan feri dan sekitar Danau Toba di Sumatera Utara, meskipun ada dampak bencana sebelumnya.
