Obligasi dan saham Mayora (MYOR), mana yang lebih manis?

 

JAKARTA – PT Mayora Indah Tbk. (MYOR), the renowned producer behind brands like Kopiko, is set to launch a new bond issuance, continuing its Mayora Indah III Sustainable Bonds 2025 program. Despite a challenging year for Mayora’s performance, this latest offering presents a compelling investment opportunity.

According to the prospectus for the Mayora Indah III Sustainable Bonds Phase III Year 2025, the issuer, owned by Jogi Hendra, plans to issue bonds with a principal amount totaling Rp827.55 billion. This issuance marks the third phase of their ongoing sustainable bond initiative.

In this third phase, Mayora will issue two distinct bond series. Series A features a five-year tenor with a fixed interest rate of 5.85% per annum. Meanwhile, Series B comes with a seven-year tenor, offering a fixed interest rate of 6.15% annually.

To provide context on the attractiveness of these bonds, Series A, with a principal amount of Rp363.52 billion, offers a yield spread of 110 basis points (bps) above the current interest rate. Series B, targeting a principal amount of Rp464.03 billion, boasts an even wider spread of 140 bps against the current rate. These spreads highlight the competitive returns offered by Mayora.

The bonds have received a strong debt rating of idAA from Pefindo, a testament to Mayora’s creditworthiness. While a comparison with similar idAA-rated corporate bonds, based on data from the Indonesian Securities Pricing Agency (PHEI), reveals that Mayora’s bonds actually carry a slightly lower yield (6.67% for five-year tenors and 7.02% for seven-year tenors), market experts advise a broader perspective. Ramdhan Ario Maruto, Associate Director of Fixed Income at Anugerah Sekuritas, emphasizes that the appeal of corporate debt products extends beyond mere yield comparisons, also factoring in historical issuance trends and prevailing industry conditions.

In terms of payment, bond interest will be disbursed quarterly, with the first payment scheduled for March 18, 2026. The principal amount will be repaid in full (bullet payment) upon maturity, specifically on December 18, 2030, for Series A and December 18, 2032, for Series B. For reference, Mayora (MYOR) previously offered bonds up to Rp1 trillion with interest reaching 6.70% in a related issuance.

Despite the positive outlook for the new bonds, Mayora Indah’s share price (MYOR) has faced significant pressure this year, declining by 22.66% year-to-date (YtD) in 2025. On Friday, December 5, 2025, the company’s shares traded at Rp2,150 per share.

Nevertheless, several securities firms maintain a positive projection for Mayora’s stock. Research Analyst Catherine Florencia of MNC Sekuritas, in her November 6, 2025 research, points to opportunities for improved fundamental performance in the fourth quarter of 2025. She anticipates that improving commodity prices will drive a recovery in the company’s margins. Specifically, MYOR’s Gross Profit Margin is projected to rebound to 22% in Q4 2025, aligning with management’s targets. Mayora is also expected to selectively adjust average selling prices by 5–10% in Q4 2025, though management stresses a cautious approach to protect margins going forward.

“We believe margins have bottomed out and will improve in Q4 2025, supported by easing input costs, stronger export momentum, stock demand for Chinese New Year in 2026, and early Eid 2026 orders,” Florencia added. Despite these positive indicators, MNC Sekuritas recommends a Hold rating for MYOR shares, with a target price revised upwards to Rp2,300 per share. The analyst’s revised projection factors in slower domestic sales momentum, raw material price volatility, import tariff uncertainties, and potentially higher finance costs from bond refinancing.

Echoing some of the optimism, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas, in its November 20, 2025 research, recommends a Buy rating for MYOR shares. One key reason cited is management’s prediction of stronger Q4 2025 growth, buoyed by anticipated government fiscal injections that are expected to boost mass market consumption. This positive trend was evident in Mayora’s October 2025 sales, which saw double-digit growth in domestic revenue and a significant export rebound, increasing over 50% month-over-month (MoM) in key markets like the Philippines, China, and Vietnam. However, due to weaker performance during the first nine months of 2025, management has revised its full-year 2025 revenue growth target to 6–8% from the initial 10%.

Analysts remain optimistic about Mayora’s long-term prospects. Continuous product innovation and strategic initiatives are expected to shield the company’s performance from raw material price volatility and consistently support its margins. With this strong outlook, analysts recommend a Buy rating for MYOR shares, setting a target price of Rp2,700 per share. Their predictions suggest MYOR is on track to achieve revenues of Rp38.53 trillion and a net profit of Rp2.75 trillion for the full year 2025.

Summary

PT Mayora Indah Tbk. (MYOR) akan menerbitkan obligasi baru senilai total Rp827.55 miliar, sebagai bagian dari Obligasi Berkelanjutan Mayora Indah III Tahap III Tahun 2025. Penerbitan ini mencakup Seri A dengan tenor lima tahun dan bunga 5.85% per tahun, serta Seri B dengan tenor tujuh tahun dan bunga 6.15% per tahun. Obligasi ini telah memperoleh peringkat idAA dari Pefindo, menegaskan kredibilitas Mayora.

Meskipun prospek obligasi positif, harga saham MYOR mengalami penurunan 22.66% secara YtD pada tahun 2025. Namun, analis memberikan proyeksi optimis untuk saham tersebut; MNC Sekuritas merekomendasikan “Hold” sementara BRI Danareksa Sekuritas merekomendasikan “Buy”. Kedua lembaga memproyeksikan perbaikan kinerja pada Kuartal IV 2025, didorong oleh biaya input yang lebih rendah, peningkatan ekspor, dan injeksi fiskal pemerintah. Untuk keseluruhan tahun 2025, analis memproyeksikan MYOR akan mencapai pendapatan Rp38.53 triliun dan laba bersih Rp2.75 triliun.

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