Rancak Media – , JAKARTA — Bank Indonesia (BI) has unveiled an ambitious roadmap for national economic growth, projecting that the economy could reach a range of 6.9% to 7.7% by 2031 under its most aspirational ‘Super Optimistic’ scenario.
Detailed in the Bank Indonesia Annual Meeting (PTBI) 2025 document, the central bank outlines three medium-to-long-term growth scenarios: Baseline, Optimistic, and Super Optimistic. The highest-tier scenario hinges on a massive acceleration of private investment coupled with aggressive structural reforms.
“With such a mix of national economic transformation policies, economic growth in 2031 […] is estimated to rise to 6.1%–6.9% in the ‘Optimistic’ scenario, and even higher to 6.9%–7.7% in the ‘Super Optimistic’ scenario,” Bank Indonesia stated in its report, quoted on Saturday (29/11/2025).
This projection significantly surpasses the baseline scenario, which only considers ongoing or already groundbreaking projects. Under this more conservative outlook, economic growth in 2031 is expected to hover between a modest 5.6% and 6.4%.
Key to the Super Optimistic Scenario
Bank Indonesia emphasizes that the ‘Super Optimistic’ scenario extends beyond merely leveraging existing projects. It robustly accounts for the implementation of new initiatives that have yet to commence or break ground, many of which inherently involve substantial investment costs.
Unlike government projects predominantly funded by the state budget (APBN), the realization of projects within this scenario is anticipated to require longer financing periods, heavily relying on both domestic and international private funding sources. Crucially, this scenario demands a far greater intensity of structural reform policies compared to the other projections. These reforms encompass three pivotal aspects.
Firstly, it targets enhanced productivity through accelerated infrastructure development, intensified research and development (R&D), widespread technology adoption, and improved market efficiency. Secondly, it aims to boost capital by refining the investment climate and significantly increasing both Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Domestic Direct Investment (DDI). Thirdly, it focuses on elevating workforce quality via expanded access to education, greater labor force participation, and the vigorous creation of formal job opportunities.
The profound impact of this ‘Super Optimistic’ scenario is expected to dramatically enhance economic efficiency. This is evidenced by the sharpest projected decline in the Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) across all scenarios. “With a decrease in ICOR, the national economy becomes more efficient because a smaller investment value is needed to achieve high growth rates,” BI explained.
Concurrently, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is also projected to achieve its highest growth. This means that, with the same levels of capital and labor, Indonesia would be capable of generating a substantially larger economic output.
Lower Than Prabowo’s Dream
Despite BI’s ambitious projections, none of its three economic growth scenarios align with President Prabowo Subianto’s target. The head of state envisions an 8% economic growth rate by 2029, a goal enshrined in the National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2025–2029.
The RPJMN outlines a specific economic growth trajectory from 2025 to 2029: 5.3% in 2025; 6.3% in 2026; 7.5% in 2027; 7.7% in 2028; and ultimately 8% in 2029. The Ministry of Finance (Kemenkeu) similarly projects economic growth consistent with Prabowo’s vision, as stipulated in Minister of Finance Regulation (PMK) No.70/20 concerning the Ministry of Finance’s Strategic Plan (Renstra) for 2025-2029. This updated Renstra aligns seamlessly with the broader RPJMN 2025–2029.
The Kemenkeu Renstra 2025-2029 specifically incorporates five overarching national development targets: elevating per capita income to levels comparable to developed nations; enhancing international leadership and influence; reducing poverty and narrowing inequality; improving human resource competitiveness; and significantly decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity towards net-zero emission goals. For 2025, economic growth is targeted at 5.3%, paving the way to the 8% objective by the end of the Prabowo administration.
Achieving this formidable 8% economic growth by 2029 is underpinned by eight core strategies: boosting agricultural productivity towards food self-sufficiency; accelerating industrialization and downstream processing; fostering tourism and the creative economy; developing the blue and green economies; positioning urban areas as pivotal economic growth centers; driving digital transformation; attracting robust investment; and strategically allocating state spending for heightened productivity.
Summary
Bank Indonesia (BI) memproyeksikan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional untuk tahun 2031 dengan skenario ‘Super Optimistis’ mencapai 6,9%-7,7%. Proyeksi ambisius ini, yang dijelaskan dalam dokumen PTBI 2025, bergantung pada akselerasi investasi swasta besar-besaran dan reformasi struktural agresif. Reformasi tersebut berfokus pada peningkatan produktivitas, pendorong modal melalui peningkatan FDI dan DDI, serta peningkatan kualitas angkatan kerja, yang semuanya penting untuk meningkatkan efisiensi ekonomi melalui penurunan ICOR dan pertumbuhan TFP yang lebih tinggi.
Meskipun proyeksi BI ambisius, target tertinggi 7,7% untuk tahun 2031 masih lebih rendah dari target pertumbuhan ekonomi 8% Presiden Prabowo Subianto pada tahun 2029. Target 8% ini tercantum dalam Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN) 2025–2029, dengan lintasan pertumbuhan yang dimulai dari 5,3% pada tahun 2025. Pencapaian tujuan ini didukung oleh delapan strategi utama, termasuk peningkatan produktivitas pertanian, percepatan industrialisasi, dan penarikan investasi yang kuat.
